Commodity Origins

Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?

Cobalt is the most concentrated of the 90 commodities, with an index of 4,988 out of 10,000: DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) makes 74% of world output and DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) supplies 65% of exports. Sesame seed is the least concentrated, at 494.

The index is a Herfindahl-Hirschman index: each supplier's percentage share is squared and the results are added up, so one supplier scores 10,000 and ten equal suppliers score 1,000. It is calculated separately for production and for exports by value, and the ranking uses the average of the two (production alone where there is no trade line). Concentration matters because a supply shock in one place is felt worldwide when that place is a large share of supply.

Price volatility is the annualised standard deviation of monthly price changes over the last ten years. Among the 41 commodities with a current benchmark price, the more concentrated half has a median annualised volatility of 23%, against 19% for the less concentrated half. That is a comparison of two groups of different commodities (metals against crops, for one), not evidence that concentration causes swings.

Supply concentration index, with price volatility and stocks
CommodityIndexProductionExportsLargest producerLargest exporterPrice volatilityWorld stocks-to-use
Cobalt4,9885,7204,256DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) 74%DR Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo) 65%——
Chromium4,9752,6137,336South Africa 45%South Africa 85%——
Jute4,8274,6485,005Bangladesh 56%Bangladesh 69%——
Cloves4,5445,7343,354Indonesia 74%Indonesia 46%——
Quinoa4,3375,6792,995Peru 69%Peru 46%——
Graphite4,1006,1142,086China 78%China 42%——
Pistachios4,0162,6715,361United States 36%United States 72%——
Hazelnuts3,8933,7474,040Turkey (Türkiye) 59%Turkey (Türkiye) 62%——
Lithium3,8782,0245,733Australia 32%Chile 73%——
Bauxite3,8222,1415,503Guinea 34%Guinea 72%——
Palm oil3,7994,0773,521Indonesia 59%Indonesia 48%24%19%
Silk3,6274,1983,056India 56%China 48%——
Almonds3,6232,8214,426United States 51%United States 65%——
Platinum3,6095,5791,639South Africa 73%South Africa 36%23%—
Rare earths3,5355,0542,016China 69%China 38%——
Yams3,3025,1981,406Nigeria 71%Ghana 25%——
Vanilla3,1532,5383,768Madagascar 43%Madagascar 60%——
Soybeans3,1372,4203,854Brazil 36%Brazil 54%16%29%
Ginger3,0272,7443,310India 48%China 56%——
Chickpeas2,8804,4991,261India 65%Australia 24%——
Palm kernel oil2,7704,1941,345Indonesia 59%Malaysia 29%34%—
Manganese2,7682,2803,256South Africa 38%South Africa 49%——
Iron ore2,7582,0833,433Australia 38%Australia 55%32%—
Nickel2,6794,559800Indonesia 67%Norway 15%25%—
Wool2,5139134,114China 21%Australia 62%——
Coal2,4362,9601,911China 52%Australia 34%37%—
Cinnamon2,4142,9101,918China 38%Vietnam 28%——
Sisal2,3832,4842,281Brazil 40%India 39%——
Palladium2,3733,4131,333Russia 44%Russia 22%——
Sorghum2,3356564,014United States 14%United States 58%——
Linseed2,2152,3852,045Russia 39%Russia 38%——
Coconut oil2,1892,3082,069Philippines 39%Indonesia 34%27%—
Pineapples2,1585693,746Costa Rica 11%Costa Rica 59%——
Aluminum2,1433,810476China 61%Canada 10%16%—
Lentils2,0531,8382,269Canada 31%Canada 38%——
Tea2,0512,9531,150China 50%Kenya 18%17%—
Plywood2,0463,0721,020China 53%China 27%7%—
Olive oil1,9851,5682,402Spain 33%Spain 42%——
Steel1,9792,8051,153China 52%China 28%——
Phosphate rock1,9042,3001,507China 44%Morocco 29%32%—
Apples1,8582,845872China 52%China 16%——
Molybdenum1,8032,1701,437China 37%Chile 24%——
Potash1,7971,7641,829Canada 31%Canada 33%28%—
Sugar1,7031,0362,371Brazil 22%Brazil 47%21%—
Cotton1,6591,3771,940China 23%Brazil 30%16%—
Sunflower oil1,6541,8051,502Russia 31%Ukraine 28%23%—
Lamb1,6518102,492China 23%Australia 42%17%—
Pork1,6452,2651,026China 46%United States 18%——
Natural rubber1,6371,5971,676Thailand 32%Thailand 30%19%—
Avocados1,6311,0612,200Mexico 25%Mexico 43%——
Corn1,6211,6921,550United States 31%United States 28%20%22%
Mangoes1,5212,174869India 45%Thailand 18%——
Cocoa1,5101,7541,265Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 36%Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 26%32%—
Rice1,5081,5211,496India 27%India 30%18%36%
Coffee1,5071,4571,557Brazil 30%Brazil 35%21%12%
Canola1,4951,2381,752Canada 22%Canada 32%19%—
Peanuts1,4701,7321,208China 34%Argentina 20%17%—
Tomatoes1,3901,3521,428China 33%Mexico 29%——
Pepper1,3351,3781,292Vietnam 28%India 24%——
Oats1,3336622,004Canada 15%Canada 41%——
Tin1,3241,4361,211China 24%Indonesia 26%22%—
Tobacco1,2521,742763China 37%Brazil 20%6%—
Lead1,2372,067407China 42%India 10%15%—
Copper1,2201,0371,402Chile 23%Chile 29%16%—
Cashews1,2151,1821,247Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 22%Ivory Coast (Côte d'Ivoire) 23%——
Shrimp1,1981,552844China 31%Ecuador 20%——
Plantains1,1441,2081,079Uganda 27%Ecuador 23%——
Bananas1,0719941,148India 27%Ecuador 27%20%—
Oranges1,0708991,240Brazil 23%Spain 22%30%—
Eggs1,0521,445658China 35%Netherlands 17%——
Dates1,0461,157935Saudi Arabia 19%Saudi Arabia 18%——
Beef1,0367151,358United States 18%Brazil 27%14%—
Potatoes9829361,029China 24%France 21%——
Zinc9441,343545China 32%Spain 9.8%20%—
Natural gas9171,046787United States 26%United States 18%68%—
Cheese9121,066758United States 28%Germany 15%——
Silver8921,121663Mexico 24%China 16%26%—
Cassava887796979Nigeria 18%Cambodia 20%——
Chicken8776061,149United States 16%Brazil 26%24%—
Milk8716131,130India 17%New Zealand 28%——
Wheat815774855China 18%Russia 16%20%37%
Grapes767832702China 22%Peru 14%——
Barley7585151,002Russia 12%Australia 19%——
Crude oil750853647United States 21%Saudi Arabia 14%37%—
Sawnwood695721669United States 17%Canada 17%6%—
Honey674810538China 24%New Zealand 11%——
Fishmeal659757562Peru 21%Peru 17%10%—
Logs612678547United States 16%New Zealand 14%5%—
Gold554455654China 12%Switzerland 18%12%—
Sesame seed494659330India 13%India 7.4%——

Production: FAOSTAT, USGS, Energy Institute, FAO FishStat, latest year, top 25 producers. Exports: CEPII BACI, value in US dollars for the primary HS line, top 15 exporters; countries outside those lists are small, so indexes are very slightly understated. Price volatility: World Bank Pink Sheet primary series, last 120 months. Stocks-to-use: USDA PSD, latest marketing year (partly an estimate), available for eight crops. Uranium, orange juice and cardamom are left out because their production series is a proxy.

More patterns

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.