Commodity Origins

Are prices lower when the world holds more stock?

For 3 of the 6 crops with a long enough record (palm oil, rice, soybeans), real prices were clearly lower in years when world stocks-to-use was high. For the others the link is weak or runs the other way, so the textbook relationship is not universal in this data.

Stocks-to-use is world ending stocks divided by world consumption, from USDA, for each marketing year since 1960. Each point below is one year, plotted against the calendar-year average price deflated to real dollars. The table compares the median real price in the third of years with the lowest stocks against the third with the highest. Rank correlation runs from −1 (higher stocks, lower price, every time) to +1. The latest marketing year is a projection and is left out. With 60-odd years each, and prices that also respond to energy costs, currencies and policy, treat these as descriptions, not laws.

World stocks-to-use against real price by crop
CropYearsRank correlationMedian real price, lowest-stocks thirdHighest-stocks third
Coffee66 (1960–2025)0.544.7 (stocks 11–34%)8.4 (stocks 199–551%)
Corn66 (1960–2025)-0.22413 (stocks 13–21%)253 (stocks 30–51%)
Palm oil62 (1964–2025)-0.472,061 (stocks 3–13%)963 (stocks 18–25%)
Rice66 (1960–2025)-0.641,290 (stocks 6–19%)568 (stocks 32–38%)
Soybeans62 (1964–2025)-0.591,064 (stocks 5–20%)514 (stocks 25–34%)
Wheat66 (1960–2025)0.10386 (stocks 23–32%)498 (stocks 40–58%)
1960: stocks-to-use 402%, real price 101961: stocks-to-use 356%, real price 91962: stocks-to-use 551%, real price 91963: stocks-to-use 439%, real price 81964: stocks-to-use 431%, real price 101965: stocks-to-use 487%, real price 101966: stocks-to-use 426%, real price 91967: stocks-to-use 439%, real price 81968: stocks-to-use 355%, real price 81969: stocks-to-use 346%, real price 71970: stocks-to-use 279%, real price 91971: stocks-to-use 264%, real price 81972: stocks-to-use 281%, real price 81973: stocks-to-use 188%, real price 101974: stocks-to-use 231%, real price 91975: stocks-to-use 203%, real price 81976: stocks-to-use 139%, real price 171977: stocks-to-use 156%, real price 271978: stocks-to-use 129%, real price 171979: stocks-to-use 128%, real price 171980: stocks-to-use 152%, real price 131981: stocks-to-use 213%, real price 101982: stocks-to-use 199%, real price 101983: stocks-to-use 199%, real price 91984: stocks-to-use 170%, real price 101985: stocks-to-use 197%, real price 91986: stocks-to-use 157%, real price 121987: stocks-to-use 229%, real price 71988: stocks-to-use 237%, real price 81989: stocks-to-use 205%, real price 61990: stocks-to-use 203%, real price 51991: stocks-to-use 208%, real price 41992: stocks-to-use 188%, real price 31993: stocks-to-use 150%, real price 31994: stocks-to-use 183%, real price 71995: stocks-to-use 138%, real price 71996: stocks-to-use 119%, real price 51997: stocks-to-use 99%, real price 81998: stocks-to-use 95%, real price 61999: stocks-to-use 81%, real price 42000: stocks-to-use 85%, real price 42001: stocks-to-use 91%, real price 22002: stocks-to-use 48%, real price 22003: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 22004: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 32005: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 42006: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 42007: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 42008: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 42009: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 52010: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 62011: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 82012: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 62013: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 42014: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 62015: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 52016: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 52017: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 42018: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 42019: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 42020: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 42021: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 52022: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 62023: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 52024: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 62025: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 8Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Coffee: 66 years, rank correlation 0.54.
1960: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 4721961: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 4721962: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 5041963: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 5511964: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 5521965: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 5541966: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 5631967: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5091968: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 4321969: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 4471970: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 4721971: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 4531972: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 4181973: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 6911974: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 8351975: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 6971976: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 6191977: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 4931978: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 4841979: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 4991980: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 4771981: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 4511982: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 3551983: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 4281984: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 4101985: stocks-to-use 49%, real price 3271986: stocks-to-use 51%, real price 2501987: stocks-to-use 46%, real price 2091988: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 2841989: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 2821990: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 2621991: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 2471992: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 2331993: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2221994: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 2281995: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 2541996: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 3321997: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 2291998: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 1961999: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 1702000: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 1612001: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 1592002: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 1732003: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 1802004: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 1862005: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 1592006: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 1902007: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 2482008: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 3252009: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 2422010: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 2672011: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 4072012: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 4082013: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 3492014: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 2562015: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 2252016: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 2082017: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 1982018: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 2052019: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 2092020: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2012021: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 3002022: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 3422023: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2602024: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 1912025: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 198Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Corn: 66 years, rank correlation -0.22.
1964: stocks-to-use 4%, real price 24211965: stocks-to-use 4%, real price 27121966: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 22771967: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 21011968: stocks-to-use 3%, real price 15221969: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 15481970: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 21001971: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 20221972: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 16311973: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 26661974: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 42561975: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 25301976: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 22411977: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 27431978: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 28871979: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 28261980: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 22221981: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 19691982: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 14461983: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 15801984: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 22001985: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 14591986: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 7351987: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 9461988: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 11591989: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 8871990: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 6961991: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 7811992: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 8801993: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 8201994: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 11181995: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 12931996: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 10621997: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 10671998: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 12911999: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 8212000: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 5652001: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 5092002: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 7172003: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 8132004: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 8292005: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 7242006: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 7912007: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 12362008: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 15202009: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 10842010: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 13422011: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 16642012: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 14262013: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 11732014: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 11102015: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 8782016: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 9622017: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 9612018: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 7982019: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 7382020: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 9112021: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 13092022: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 13682023: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 9132024: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 9632025: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 981Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Palm oil: 62 years, rank correlation -0.47.
1960: stocks-to-use 7%, real price 11381961: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 12481962: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 13991963: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 12871964: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 12141965: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 11821966: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 14031967: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 17801968: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 16491969: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 14401970: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 10201971: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 8641972: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 9711973: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 20451974: stocks-to-use 13%, real price 32901975: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 19901976: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 12931977: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 13051978: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 16621979: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 13531980: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 15641981: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 15831982: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 8851983: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 8091984: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 7021985: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 5741986: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 5331987: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 5931988: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 7361989: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 7571990: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 6501991: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 6761992: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 6001993: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 5111994: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 5661995: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 6611996: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 6781997: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 5931998: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 5851999: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 4682000: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 3692001: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 3062002: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 3352003: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 3372004: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 3952005: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 4602006: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 4752007: stocks-to-use 19%, real price 4942008: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 9482009: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 8112010: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 7032011: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 7572012: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 7692013: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 6812014: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 5602015: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 5112016: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 5182017: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 5112018: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 5262019: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 5132020: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 6022021: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 5312022: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 4682023: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 5702024: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 5882025: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 397Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Rice: 66 years, rank correlation -0.64.
1964: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 11181965: stocks-to-use 5%, real price 11621966: stocks-to-use 10%, real price 12151967: stocks-to-use 16%, real price 10771968: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 9991969: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 9131970: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 9441971: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 9731972: stocks-to-use 6%, real price 10501973: stocks-to-use 11%, real price 20501974: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 17611975: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 12821976: stocks-to-use 8%, real price 12741977: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 14501978: stocks-to-use 14%, real price 12901979: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 12871980: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 11281981: stocks-to-use 18%, real price 9951982: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 7951983: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 8871984: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 8511985: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 6541986: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5961987: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5961988: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 8051989: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 6961990: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5921991: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 5521992: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5271993: stocks-to-use 17%, real price 5541994: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 5331995: stocks-to-use 15%, real price 5341996: stocks-to-use 12%, real price 6101997: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 5771998: stocks-to-use 20%, real price 4681999: stocks-to-use 21%, real price 3802000: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 3862001: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 3472002: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 3712003: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 4502004: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 5092005: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 4412006: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 4182007: stocks-to-use 25%, real price 5802008: stocks-to-use 22%, real price 7602009: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 6192010: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 6432011: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 7502012: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 8142013: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 7432014: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 6432015: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 5192016: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 5302017: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 5042018: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 4932019: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 4532020: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 4932021: stocks-to-use 26%, real price 6752022: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 7242023: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 6162024: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 4622025: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 404Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Soybeans: 62 years, rank correlation -0.59.
1960: stocks-to-use 58%, real price 6151961: stocks-to-use 51%, real price 6151962: stocks-to-use 52%, real price 6671963: stocks-to-use 44%, real price 6601964: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 6821965: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 5921966: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 6081967: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 6181968: stocks-to-use 48%, real price 5661969: stocks-to-use 49%, real price 4991970: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 4431971: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 4781972: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 5241973: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 9871974: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 11431975: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 8691976: stocks-to-use 48%, real price 7321977: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 5341978: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 6141979: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 6931980: stocks-to-use 34%, real price 6581981: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 6041982: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 5211983: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 4961984: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 4601985: stocks-to-use 44%, real price 3961986: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 3291987: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 3121988: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 3851989: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 4281990: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 3251991: stocks-to-use 28%, real price 2961992: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 3381993: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 3051994: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 3171995: stocks-to-use 31%, real price 3641996: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 4151997: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 3121998: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 2431999: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 2112000: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 2082001: stocks-to-use 40%, real price 2252002: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 2582003: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2492004: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2612005: stocks-to-use 27%, real price 2452006: stocks-to-use 24%, real price 2992007: stocks-to-use 23%, real price 3862008: stocks-to-use 30%, real price 4752009: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 3282010: stocks-to-use 35%, real price 3222011: stocks-to-use 33%, real price 4412012: stocks-to-use 29%, real price 4282013: stocks-to-use 32%, real price 4202014: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 3782015: stocks-to-use 39%, real price 2712016: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 2182017: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 2232018: stocks-to-use 43%, real price 2622019: stocks-to-use 45%, real price 2472020: stocks-to-use 41%, real price 2812021: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 3652022: stocks-to-use 38%, real price 4612023: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 3502024: stocks-to-use 36%, real price 2692025: stocks-to-use 37%, real price 237Stocks-to-use, %Real price
Wheat: 66 years, rank correlation 0.10.

USDA PSD world ending stocks and domestic consumption (marketing years), matched to the calendar-year average of the World Bank Pink Sheet primary price for the year the marketing year begins, deflated by the US consumer price index to 2024 dollars. Price units differ by crop ($/kg or $/t). Only crops with USDA balances and a Pink Sheet series are included; coffee shows the opposite sign to the textbook one. One possibility is that stocks build when prices are high, so cause may run the other way, but this data cannot say.

More patterns

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.