Commodity Origins

How far do commodity prices fall, and do they recover?

The typical benchmark price has at some point fallen 85% from a peak in inflation-adjusted terms. 38 of the 43 have not yet climbed back to the peak that preceded their worst fall; the slowest to recover took 29 years (oranges). The worst was sugar, down 98% between November 1974 and June 1985.

A drawdown is the fall from a running peak to a later low, measured on the real price (deflated by US consumer prices to 2024 dollars) so that inflation does not disguise a fall. "Recovered" means the real price got back to the peak that preceded the trough. 9 of the ten deepest falls began before 1985, so a price that has not recovered may partly reflect a series that starts at a boom. Click a heading to sort.

Worst fall in real price, recovery and current distance from the peak
PriceWorst fallFromToMonths to recoverNow below record
Sugar−98%November 1974June 1985not yet95%
Silver−95%January 1980November 2001not yet61%
Coffee−94%April 1977August 2002not yet80%
Coconut oil−94%March 1974February 2001not yet79%
Urea−94%January 1974July 1999not yet81%
Cocoa−93%July 1977November 2000not yet75%
Natural gas−93%October 2005March 2024not yet88%
Rice−93%April 1974May 2001not yet89%
Palm oil−92%October 1974May 2001not yet80%
Phosphate rock−92%February 1977January 1999not yet79%
Tin−91%October 1978September 2001not yet27%
Phosphate fertilizers−91%September 1974June 2001not yet70%
Soybeans−90%June 1973May 2001not yet86%
Crude oil−89%November 1979December 199811356%
Cotton−89%January 1974October 2001not yet85%
Zinc−89%May 1974April 2003not yet68%
Lead−88%June 1979October 2002not yet71%
Peanuts−88%November 1980May 2002not yet87%
Copper−88%April 1974October 2001not yet32%
Wheat−87%February 1974December 2016not yet79%
Nickel−86%May 2007February 2016not yet80%
Corn−85%October 1974July 2000not yet77%
Tea−84%April 1977March 2003not yet82%
Natural rubber−83%February 2011August 2023not yet73%
Gold−83%January 1980April 200128614%
Beef−82%August 1973October 1998not yet60%
Iron ore−82%November 2007December 2015not yet69%
Platinum−81%February 1980October 1998not yet52%
Aluminum−81%June 1988April 2020not yet68%
Plywood−81%May 1993July 2026not yet80%
Coal−81%April 1981August 20027072%
Palm kernel oil−80%February 2011June 2019not yet35%
Potash−79%April 2022October 2024not yet72%
Oranges−78%July 1979December 199435373%
Bananas−77%May 1964August 2003not yet51%
Tobacco−77%January 1960September 2005not yet66%
Sunflower oil−71%June 2008January 2019not yet53%
Fishmeal−67%November 1980November 20008010%
Chicken−66%July 1973July 2024not yet59%
Lamb−65%May 2011June 2024not yet51%
Sawnwood−64%February 2008October 2022not yet62%
Logs−64%October 1978January 2025not yet62%
Canola−61%April 2022February 2024not yet44%

Volatility by decade

Volatility here is the annualised standard deviation of monthly percentage changes in the cash price. The median across benchmark prices was highest in the 1970s and lowest in the 1960s; the 2020s are partial.

Median annualised volatility of benchmark prices by decade
DecadeMedian volatilityPrices
1960s12%31
1970s26%35
1980s21%38
1990s18%39
2000s23%43
2010s19%43
2020s22%43
More volatile in the 2020s than the 2010s
Price2010s2020s
Cocoa17%37%
Natural gas40%77%
Sunflower oil15%28%
Coal22%41%
Platinum16%26%
Canola13%22%
Calmer in the 2020s
Price2010s2020s
Fishmeal19%10%
Natural rubber24%17%
Logs8%6%
Potash35%27%
Lead18%14%
Cotton21%18%

World Bank Pink Sheet primary series with at least 20 years of data and a current observation; US consumer price index from FRED (BLS). Volatility needs at least 60 monthly changes in a decade. Prices are monthly averages and are not investment advice.

More patterns

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.