What is in your commodity basket, and where does it come from?
Pick the commodities you buy, sell or follow, give each a weight, and the tool adds up how much of that mix is in commodities where one country mines or grows half or more of the world's output, which are on a US or EU critical-mineral list, and which have an export control in force. It uses the same published tables as the commodity pages and runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent or saved.
Result
- 55% of the basket's weight is in commodities where one country produces half or more of world output.
- 100% is in commodities on a US or EU critical-mineral list.
- 100% is in commodities with at least one export control in force in the register as of 2026-10-09.
- Weighting each commodity's three largest producers by your weights, the countries with the biggest share of the basket's world output are DR Congo (18%), China (17%), Indonesia (16%), Chile (9.4%), Australia (7.9%). This counts only each commodity's top three producers, so it understates the total, and it is production, not what you buy.
- For the 4 of 5 commodities with a benchmark price (85% of the weight), the weighted average of their 12-month price changes is +53.1%, to each series' latest month (August 2026 to September 2026). This is a simple average of changes, not the move of a rebalanced basket; the index builder draws that.
| Commodity | Weight | Largest producer | Top three | Critical lists | Export controls in force | 12-month price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | 25% | Australia 32% | 72% | US, EU (strategic) | 4 measures (Zimbabwe, China) | +82.2% |
| Cobalt | 20% | DR Congo 74% | 91% | US, EU (strategic) | 2 measures (DR Congo) | +69.8% |
| Nickel | 20% | Indonesia 67% | 79% | US, EU (strategic) | 1 measure (Indonesia) | +8.1% |
| Copper | 20% | Chile 23% | 49% | US, EU (strategic) | 2 measures (DR Congo, Indonesia) | +45.0% |
| Graphite | 15% | China 78% | 86% | US, EU (strategic) | 1 measure (China) | — |
How to read it
- Weights can be any positive numbers, such as dollars spent or tonnes bought; they are turned into shares of the total. Mixing units (tonnes of one, dollars of another) makes the shares meaningless, so use one unit.
- Concentration is the largest producer's share of world output in the latest year on file (USGS for minerals, FAO for crops, and so on). It says where the commodity is made, not where you buy it; a country that makes half of the world's supply may export little of it.
- Critical lists are the US 2025 and EU 2024 critical-mineral lists. A food or fuel commodity is simply not on them.
- Export controls are the dated measures in the register that are in force as of 2026-10-09. A measure on a commodity does not mean supply to you is restricted; read the entry.
- Prices are World Bank and IMF monthly benchmark averages. The weighted average of 12-month changes is a summary of what happened, not a forecast and not investment advice. For how a weighted basket moved over time, use the index builder.
- Nothing here predicts supply or prices, and no score is computed. For countries rather than commodities, see the supplier exposure checker and the critical minerals hub.
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, FAOSTAT, Energy Institute Statistical Review and other producer series named on each commodity page; US 2025 and EU 2024 critical-mineral lists; this site's export-controls register; World Bank Pink Sheet and IMF prices. The data file behind the tool is exposure-tool.json.