Commodity price shocks, 1960 to today
38 dated events, in order: the peak and trough of the 12 deepest real-price drawdowns on the drawdowns report, and the 14 largest one-year falls in world crop output on the supply shocks report. Nothing here is a new number; every entry links back to the report it comes from.
For a smaller, rotating slice of the same data — every peak and trough that fell in the current calendar month, in any year — see this month in commodity price history. These are extremes, picked because they were the largest, not a representative sample. The supply-shocks report's own finding, across all 719 crop-years it covers, is that a bigger output fall was not reliably followed by a bigger price rise: prices rose in 51% of years when output fell 3% or more, against 45% of quiet years. The large cases below are exactly the ones a random year is unlikely to produce, so read them as notable episodes, not as evidence that shortages generally move prices this much.
1970s
Urea: Urea's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 94% fall that followed. Commodity roundup, July 2026: the biggest movers · Saudi Arabia: oil above all, and what else it sells
Coconut oil: Coconut oil's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 94% fall that followed. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Rice: Rice's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 93% fall that followed. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Phosphate fertilizers: Phosphate fertilizers's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 91% fall that followed.
Palm oil: Palm oil's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 92% fall that followed. El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Sugar: Sugar's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 98% fall that followed. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · The 2024 cocoa spike: why chocolate got expensive
Phosphate rock: Phosphate rock's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 92% fall that followed. Commodity roundup, July 2026: the biggest movers
Coffee: Coffee's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 94% fall that followed. Commodity benchmarks explained: Brent, arabica, TSR20 · El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit
Cocoa: Cocoa's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 93% fall that followed. El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Tin: Tin's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 91% fall that followed. The 2025–26 metals rally: gold, silver and copper's different records · Copper hits a record: Chile mines it, China buys it
1980s
Silver: Silver's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 95% fall that followed. The 2025–26 metals rally: gold, silver and copper's different records · Gold's record price: who mines it, who trades it
Sugar: Sugar's real price bottomed out, 98% below its November 1974 peak, and has not recovered since. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · The 2024 cocoa spike: why chocolate got expensive
1990s
Sorghum: World sorghum output fell 17% (FAOSTAT); Sorghum's real price fell 6% the same year.
Tobacco: World tobacco output fell 23% (FAOSTAT); Tobacco's real price fell 4% the same year.
Barley: World barley output fell 13% (FAOSTAT); Barley's real price rose 39% the same year. Wheat: who grows it, who exports it, who buys it
Coconut oil: World coconut oil output fell 16% (FAOSTAT); Coconut oil's real price rose 9% the same year. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Sorghum: World sorghum output fell 13% (FAOSTAT); Sorghum's real price fell 29% the same year.
Tobacco: World tobacco output fell 23% (FAOSTAT); Tobacco's real price fell 7% the same year.
Phosphate rock: Phosphate rock's real price bottomed out, 92% below its February 1977 peak, and has not recovered since. Commodity roundup, July 2026: the biggest movers
Urea: Urea's real price bottomed out, 94% below its January 1974 peak, and has not recovered since. Commodity roundup, July 2026: the biggest movers · Saudi Arabia: oil above all, and what else it sells
Coconut oil: World coconut oil output fell 23% (FAOSTAT); Coconut oil's real price rose 10% the same year. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
2000s
Cocoa: Cocoa's real price bottomed out, 93% below its July 1977 peak, and has not recovered since. El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Coconut oil: Coconut oil's real price bottomed out, 94% below its March 1974 peak, and has not recovered since. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Rice: Rice's real price bottomed out, 93% below its April 1974 peak, and has not recovered since. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Palm oil: Palm oil's real price bottomed out, 92% below its October 1974 peak, and has not recovered since. El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit · FOB, CIF and Incoterms in one page
Phosphate fertilizers: Phosphate fertilizers's real price bottomed out, 91% below its September 1974 peak, and has not recovered since.
Tin: Tin's real price bottomed out, 91% below its October 1978 peak, and has not recovered since. The 2025–26 metals rally: gold, silver and copper's different records · Copper hits a record: Chile mines it, China buys it
Silver: Silver's real price bottomed out, 95% below its January 1980 peak, and has not recovered since. The 2025–26 metals rally: gold, silver and copper's different records · Gold's record price: who mines it, who trades it
Coconut oil: World coconut oil output fell 14% (FAOSTAT); Coconut oil's real price rose 30% the same year. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Coffee: Coffee's real price bottomed out, 94% below its April 1977 peak, and has not recovered since. Commodity benchmarks explained: Brent, arabica, TSR20 · El Nino and La Nina: which commodities they hit
Natural gas: Natural gas's benchmark price reached a peak, in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, before a 93% fall that followed. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · Contango and backwardation explained
Peanuts: World peanuts output fell 13% (FAOSTAT); Peanuts's real price fell 3% the same year.
Sorghum: World sorghum output fell 15% (FAOSTAT); Sorghum's real price fell 27% the same year.
2010s
Barley: World barley output fell 18% (FAOSTAT); Barley's real price rose 21% the same year. Wheat: who grows it, who exports it, who buys it
Coconut oil: World coconut oil output fell 17% (FAOSTAT); Coconut oil's real price rose 49% the same year. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Cotton: World cotton output fell 14% (FAOSTAT); Cotton's real price fell 15% the same year. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms
2020s
Coconut oil: World coconut oil output fell 14% (FAOSTAT); Coconut oil's real price rose 36% the same year. Vegetable oils: a family of prices that move together, up to a point · Commodity roundup, August 2026: the biggest movers
Natural gas: Natural gas's real price bottomed out, 93% below its October 2005 peak, and has not recovered since. Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms · Contango and backwardation explained
Method
Peaks and troughs are the highest and lowest points of the real (inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars) benchmark price in a series with at least 20 years of history, taken from the drawdowns report. Supply shocks are the largest one-year falls in world output for a priced crop since 1993, from FAOSTAT, taken from the supply shocks report; the price change shown is the real price's change in the same calendar year, not a claim that the output fall caused it. Prices are monthly averages of benchmark quotes and are not investment advice.