Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms

Published 2026-09-19; updated 2026-09-19.

A price record is only meaningful if a dollar means the same thing in both years. Adjusted for US inflation (in 2024 dollars), most of the benchmark prices on this site are well below where they were decades ago. Of the 43 primary World Bank benchmark series, the middle one stands at 29% of its highest real price, 17 are at a quarter or less, and 13 of those 17 set their real peak before 1980 (World Bank Pink Sheet; BLS CPI via FRED).

The ten furthest from their peaks

Sugar is the extreme: at 5% of its November 1974 peak, it costs about one twentieth of what it did then in real terms. Rice, soybeans and cotton peaked in 1973 and 1974, the years of the first oil shock and a global commodity boom that the supercycles explainer describes. Natural gas is the exception in the table: its real peak is October 2005, not the 1970s, and peanuts and plywood have shorter series (they start in 1980 and 1979).

What is close to a record

At the other end, fishmeal (90% of its January 2013 peak), gold (86% of its February 2026 peak), tin (73% of its October 1978 peak), copper (68% of its April 1974 peak), palm kernel oil (65% of its February 2011 peak). Even the metals that reached cash records in 2026 are below their peaks once inflation is removed; the 2025-26 metals rally covers what set them apart. The real prices report lists all 43.

Why cheaper does not prove much on its own

A falling real price is what you would expect if supply grew faster than demand: world output of soybeans is 15 times its 1961 level, rice 3.8 times, cotton 2.6 times and sugar 3.6 times (FAOSTAT). But this page does not test that, and the start dates of the series matter: a price that peaked in 1974 looks low against a boom year, not necessarily against a normal one. Read the numbers as a comparison with the highest real price in each series, not as a claim about a fair price. Prices are monthly benchmark averages and are not investment advice. Figures are as of the August 2026 data.

Cite as: Commodity Origins, "Cheaper than 1974: the commodities that fell in real terms", https://commodityorigins.com/learn/cheaper-than-1974-real-commodity-prices/ (CC BY 4.0).