How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier?

In 2024, 1,462 importer-and-commodity pairs had imports of at least $50 million with one supplier providing 50% or more. In 13 of them, 8 on critical minerals, the sales that every other exporter made to other buyers were smaller than the value the importer bought from its top supplier. The tightest case: China buying bauxite from Guinea, where those sales were 0.09 times the purchase. 11 of the 13 have China as the importer, which mostly reflects the size of China's purchases.

The comparison figure is the value of what every other exporter already sold to buyers other than this importer, divided by what the importer bought from its largest supplier. Below 1, the value other exporters already sell to other buyers is smaller than the purchase. Above 1, their sales to other buyers are larger than the purchase, which does not show that they could be redirected. It is a ratio taken from one year's customs records, not a scenario: those sales go to buyers who already use the goods. A real change of supplier would also depend on whether those exporters could redirect their sales, on shipping time and on prices, none of which this ratio measures. It does not measure spare capacity, domestic output or stocks.

A worked example from the table: China bought $7.6 billion of bauxite (HS 2606) from Guinea in 2024, 77% of its $9.9 billion of imports on the line. Every other exporter together, leaving out Guinea and China itself, sold $672.1 million to other buyers. $672.1 million divided by $7.6 billion is 0.09. Guinea supplied 72% of world exports on the line.

Critical minerals with the smallest ratios

The 40 smallest of 216 critical-mineral pairs; their median ratio is 3.84, and the median across all 216 is 37.1. The critical minerals are those on the US 2025 or EU 2024 lists that have a page here. All pairs are in substitution.json.

All commodities, smallest ratios

What the ratio does not say

• It is not spare capacity or a supply verdict. It counts what other exporters already sold, not what they could produce or ship, and leaves out domestic output and stocks.
• The pool's buyers already use the goods. Sales counted in the other exporters' total go to other importers, who would be left short if they were redirected.
• It is by value, on one customs line. Each commodity is read on its main customs line, often one narrow product form (refined borax for boron, lithium carbonate for lithium, uranium ores for uranium), and grades inside a line differ, so a supplier's product may not be a like-for-like substitute. The line named "rare earths" (HS 2805) is mostly alkali and alkaline-earth metals, with rare-earth metals, scandium and yttrium a smaller part.
• Hubs count as exporters and as importers. A country that buys goods and sells them on is counted as a seller, so goods the largest supplier sold to a hub can reappear in the pool as the hub's sales, for example Brazilian ferro-niobium sold to the Netherlands and then sold on. Rows where an importer or supplier is a trading hub are marked, and a hub's apparent dependence is partly transit trade.
• One year, no price. The table describes the 2024 trade records. It says nothing about how prices or flows would change.
• Only large dependencies are listed. A pair needs at least $50 million of imports and a top supplier at 50% or more. BACI's unallocated "Other Asia, not elsewhere specified" code is not treated as an importer or a supplier.

CEPII BACI (bilateral trade by customs line, primary line of each commodity), 2024. BACI reconciles exporters' and importers' declarations; values are free on board (freight removed). Generated 2026-10-22. Data: substitution.json.