Which critical minerals combine concentrated production, export controls and import reliance?

3 of the 43 critical minerals meet all four conditions below (bismuth, fluorspar, graphite). 12 more meet three of them (antimony, bauxite, chromium, cobalt, gallium, indium, magnesium, niobium, platinum, rare earths, silver, tin). 19 have one country producing 50% or more of the world total in the series used (12 of them mining series, the rest smelting or refining), 20 have at least one export control in force in the register, and 10 have both.

This page puts four separate measurements next to each other for every mineral on the US 2025 or EU 2024 list that has a page here. It does not add them into a score. A score would need weights, and any weights would be a judgment this site cannot defend from the data. Instead each condition is stated, counted, and shown in its own units, so a reader can see which minerals combine them and weigh them as they like. The 65% figure is borrowed from the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, where it applies to one third country's share of EU consumption of a strategic raw material; here it is applied to the share of one customs line's imports. The 50% producer line and the 75% US reliance line are markers chosen here, not official thresholds.

The four conditions

• Concentrated production: one country produces 50% or more of the world total in the series used. 19 of 39 minerals where it could be settled meet it.
• Export controls: at least one export control on the mineral is in force in the register. 20 of 43 minerals where it could be settled meet it.
• US import reliance: US net import reliance is 75% or more. 22 of 33 minerals where it could be settled meet it.
• One dominant origin: one origin supplies more than 65% of the customs-recorded imports of at least one of five importers (the European Union, United States, Japan, India and South Korea) that bought $10 million or more on the line. 27 of 34 minerals where it could be settled meet it.

How many conditions each mineral meets

• 4 conditions: Bismuth (4 of 4), Fluorspar (4 of 4), Graphite (4 of 4).
• 3 conditions: Antimony (3 of 4), Bauxite (3 of 4), Chromium (3 of 4), Cobalt (3 of 4), Gallium (3 of 3), Indium (3 of 3), Magnesium (3 of 4), Niobium (3 of 4), Platinum (3 of 4), Rare earths (3 of 4), Silver (3 of 4), Tin (3 of 4).
• 2 conditions: Aluminum (2 of 4), Barite (2 of 4), Lithium (2 of 3), Manganese (2 of 4), Nickel (2 of 4), Phosphate rock (2 of 4), Potash (2 of 4), Silicon (2 of 3), Strontium (2 of 3), Tantalum (2 of 3), Tellurium (2 of 2), Tungsten (2 of 3), Uranium (2 of 2), Vanadium (2 of 4).

The bracket gives conditions met out of conditions that could be measured: a mineral with no country production table, no US reliance figure or no importer data has fewer than four.

What each column measures, and what it does not

• Largest producer. The top country's share of world production in the latest year of the mineral's main production series (USGS). The stage differs by mineral and is shown in the cell: mining for most, smelting for aluminum and magnesium, refining or processing for arsenic, bismuth, gallium, indium, silicon and tellurium. Where a country is withheld in the USGS table, shares are of the sum of the countries shown. Uranium is shown without a producer because its series here is nuclear generation, not mining.
• Controls in force. Entries in this site's dated register with status in force, read on 9 October 2026. The count includes bans, quotas, duties, licensing requirements (including one general list of 43 goods), technology restrictions, end-user lists and a state-trading qualification rule; fluorspar's and phosphate rock's flags rest only on the general list. It leaves out suspensions of earlier controls, scrap-only measures and a domestic allocation order, which the register keeps but which are not limits on the mineral's exports. The register is not exhaustive: zero means none found, not that none exist, and some entries lapse within weeks.
• US net import reliance. USGS's measure for the United States only, as USGS defines it for each commodity (for several metals, the refined metal), as a percent of apparent consumption in 2025. It says nothing about other countries. ">" means USGS prints a lower bound and "<" an upper bound; a bound that cannot show whether reliance reaches 75% leaves the condition unsettled, and where USGS lists more than one figure the first is shown with its stage. A dash means no figure in the USGS table used here; for some minerals USGS prints that the United States is a net exporter.
• Largest import origin. The highest share, among the European Union, United States, Japan, India and South Korea, of an importer's customs-recorded imports on the mineral's primary customs line in 2024 (supplier exposure), counting only importers that bought $10 million or more on the line. It is the exporting country, which can be a trader or processor, and a share of imports, not of consumption. The customs line is often ore or concentrate, or a mixed line (rare earths share theirs with alkali and alkaline-earth metals; iridium's is iridium, osmium and ruthenium together), while other columns refer to a different stage of the same mineral. The European Union's figure leaves out trade between its members.
• Reserve years. Reserves divided by one year's production, as on how much is left. A ratio, not a forecast. "≥" marks reserves that USGS prints as a lower bound; platinum and palladium share one platinum-group reserve figure, and titanium's is ilmenite only.
• By-product of. Hosts the register records as by-product sources of the mineral, leaving out routes marked historical or minor. Co-product routes, such as vanadium from titanomagnetite or helium from natural gas, are not listed.

Computed from this site's published tables: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, CEPII BACI, the export-controls register and USGS import-reliance figures. Generated 2026-10-22. Data: critical-matrix.json.