How firm are each commodity's production numbers?

Of 110 commodities, 29 have production numbers rated Firm, 80 Fair and 1 Rough. The level describes how the figures were produced and revised, using tests anyone can repeat. It is not a statement about whether a figure is right.

For minerals (USGS), the tests are: how much of the world total is not broken out by country; how far USGS's first estimate for a year moved when the next edition settled it; and whether USGS prints a world total at all. For crops, forestry and fish (FAO), the test is how much of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported. Each test scores 0, 1 or 2 points; 0 points is Firm, 1 or 2 is Fair, 3 or more is Rough. Where this site has not yet checked how USGS revised its earlier figures for a mineral, that counts as 1 point, because stability cannot be shown.

Share of the world total not broken out by country: Fair at 10% or more, Rough at 25% or more.
Median revision of USGS's first estimate: Fair at 2% or more, Rough at 8% or more (needs 2 usable years).
Estimated or imputed share of FAO world output: Fair at 10% or more, Rough at 40% or more.

Data level and reasons, by commodity
Commodity	Level	Points	Source	Why
Antimony	Rough	3	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS prints no world total for this mineral, so the world figure is the sum of the countries it lists. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 22% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Bismuth	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS prints no world total for this mineral, so the world figure is the sum of the countries it lists. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Cassava	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	45% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cinnamon	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	69% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Dates	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	93% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Eggs	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	64% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Feldspar	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	11% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Fishmeal	Fair	2	FAO FishStat	51% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Gallium	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS prints no world total for this mineral, so the world figure is the sum of the countries it lists. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Gold	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	30% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 0.9% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Graphite	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.6% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 16% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Lamb	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	61% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Lead	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	11% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 5.8% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2021 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Lithium	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.6% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 12% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Logs	Fair	2	FAOSTAT forestry	54% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Palladium	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS prints no world total for this mineral, so the world figure is the sum of the countries it lists. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Plantains	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	60% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Plywood	Fair	2	FAOSTAT forestry	64% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Potatoes	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	44% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Sawnwood	Fair	2	FAOSTAT forestry	45% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Shrimp	Fair	2	FAO FishStat	70% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Silk	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	90% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Steel	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	12% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Tea	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	81% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Tomatoes	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	51% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Vanadium	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	USGS prints no world total for this mineral, so the world figure is the sum of the countries it lists. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 4.0% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Vanilla	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	71% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Wool	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	42% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Yams	Fair	2	FAOSTAT	86% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Zinc	Fair	2	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	15% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 2.3% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2021 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Almonds	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	21% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Aluminum	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	9.5% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Apples	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	13% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Arsenic	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.8% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Avocados	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	13% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Bananas	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	18% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Barite	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	4.0% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 3.5% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Bauxite	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	1.8% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 7.2% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2023 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Beef	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	27% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Beryllium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Cardamom	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	40% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cashews	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	17% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cheese	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	13% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Chicken	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	19% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Chickpeas	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	10% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Chromium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	5.9% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Cloves	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	23% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cobalt	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.9% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 3.9% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Coffee	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	15% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Copper	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	13% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 0.5% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Fluorspar	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.0% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 4.3% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Ginger	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	38% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Grapes	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	36% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Hazelnuts	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	16% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Helium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.6% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Honey	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	34% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Indium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.8% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Magnesium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	1.5% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Mangoes	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	18% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Milk	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	30% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Niobium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 5.9% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Orange juice	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	14% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Oranges	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	14% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Pepper	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	27% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Phosphate rock	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 2.0% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Pineapples	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	30% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Pistachios	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	30% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Platinum	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.3% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Potash	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.7% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 2.7% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Rhenium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Sesame seed	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	23% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Silicon	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	1.0% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Sisal	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	31% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Strontium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Sugar	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	15% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Tantalum	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.6% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no world reserves total; the reserves table is a sum of the countries listed.
Tellurium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.0% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives no reserves figure.
Tin	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	0.6% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 2.0% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Titanium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.4% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Tobacco	Fair	1	FAOSTAT	22% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Zirconium	Fair	1	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	3.3% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. This site has not yet checked how far USGS revised its earlier estimates for this mineral, so it cannot show the figures are stable. USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Barley	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	4.0% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Canola	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.0% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cocoa	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	1.3% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Coconut oil	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	2.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Corn	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	1.3% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Cotton	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	9.7% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Iron ore	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.5% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 1.9% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Jute	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	5.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Lentils	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	8.0% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Linseed	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	1.4% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Manganese	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	6.5% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 1.5% when the next edition settled it (4 years, 2021 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Molybdenum	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 1.4% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Natural rubber	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.3% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Nickel	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	7.4% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 0.6% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Oats	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	2.9% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Olive oil	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	9.4% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Palm kernel oil	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	1.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Palm oil	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Peanuts	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	8.6% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Pork	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	8.5% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Quinoa	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.0% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Rare earths	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	The listed countries account for all of the world total USGS prints. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 0.9% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2022 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Rice	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	2.1% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Silver	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	8.1% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 1.2% when the next edition settled it (2 years, 2023 to 2024). USGS gives a world reserves figure.
Sorghum	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	5.9% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Soybeans	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).
Sunflower oil	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	0.2% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2023).
Tungsten	Firm	0	USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries	2.8% of USGS's world total is in its "other countries" line or unassigned, not broken out by country. USGS's first estimate for a year has been revised by a median of 1.9% when the next edition settled it (3 years, 2021 to 2024). USGS gives the world reserves only as a lower bound ("more than").
Wheat	Firm	0	FAOSTAT	1.5% of world output is estimated or imputed rather than officially reported (2024).

Computed from the published production tables, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022 to 2026 (revisions) and FAO data flags (estimated shares). Energy Institute commodities are not rated. Revisions are listed on what changed in the data.

More patterns

Concentration: How much of each commodity comes from one country?
Producer or exporter?: Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad?
Prices in real terms: Which prices are records once inflation is removed?
Growth and decline: Whose output is rising or falling fastest?
Linked prices and seasons: Which prices move together, and which have a season?
A century of real prices: Are minerals getting scarcer, judging by their real prices since 1900?
Supplier exposure: Which big buyers lean on one supplier for critical minerals?
Trade after export controls: What happened to a country's exports after it controlled them?
Export share history: Who has gained and lost share of world exports since 2000?
Prices around export controls: What happened to mineral prices after export controls?
Export basket prices: What would a country's commodity exports have fetched at each month's prices?
Substitution coverage: How large are other exporters' sales to other buyers next to an importer's biggest supplier?
Critical risk matrix: Which critical minerals combine concentrated mining, export controls and import reliance?
Country reserve life: Which producing countries have the least of what they mine?
Prices and cumulative output: Do prices fall as the world digs up more of a mineral?
US import reliance and recycling: How much of each mineral does the United States import, and how much comes from scrap?
Export controls and bans: Which governments restrict exports of minerals, and what is still in force?
Chokepoints: Which narrow passages do the world's commodities depend on?
By-product minerals: Which minerals are by-products of other metals?
Peak production: Which minerals and fuels are still setting records, and which peaked years ago?
Reserves and mining: Where are the deposits, and who digs them up?
Supply concentration: Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?
Land or yield?: Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better?
Supply shocks and prices: When world output falls, do prices rise?
Category price indices: How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960?
Drawdowns and volatility: How far do prices fall, and do they recover?
Stocks and prices: Are prices lower when the world holds more stock?
Which prices follow oil?: How closely does each commodity track crude oil?
How reliable is the data?: How much of world output rests on estimates?
Net exporters and importers: Who is a net seller and who a net buyer?
Country leaders: Which countries lead across the most commodities?
Export dependency: Which countries rely on one commodity?
Concentration over time: Has production spread out or narrowed?
Import dependency: Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier?
Supplier shifts: Who gained and lost importers' business?
Trade price against benchmark: Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price?
Prices in other currencies: How much of a price move is the dollar?
Do prices lead each other?: Does one commodity price move before another?
Volatility over time: Are prices more volatile than they used to be?
Seasonality: Which prices have a calendar-month pattern?
Price ratios: What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low?
El Niño and prices: Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices?
Who consumes it: Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person?
Self-sufficiency: Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use?
Trade flows: Who sells each commodity to whom?

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.