Which commodity prices follow oil?

The median commodity price has had a correlation with crude oil of 0.05 in 1996 to 2005, 0.36 in 2006 to 2015 and 0.20 in the last ten years. 3 prices are now at 0.40 or higher: aluminum, cotton, palm oil.

The correlation is calculated on month-to-month percentage changes in each price and in the Brent crude oil benchmark, over three periods, and needs at least 90 overlapping months. A value near 0 means the price moves independently of oil; near 1, in step with it. Energy is a cost for farming, fertiliser, mining and shipping, and vegetable oils and sugar can be turned into fuel, which are the usual reasons prices are linked. A shift between periods shows the link strengthening or weakening but does not by itself explain why. Click a heading to sort.

Correlation of monthly price changes with crude oil, by period
Price	1996 to 2005	2006 to 2015	last 10 years	Change, latest vs 2006 to 2015
Aluminum	0.28	0.56	0.45	−0.10
Cotton	0.06	0.38	0.44	+0.06
Palm oil	-0.14	0.49	0.40	−0.09
Sugar	0.08	0.19	0.37	+0.19
Canola	—	0.58	0.37	−0.21
Platinum	0.17	0.50	0.35	−0.15
Natural rubber	—	0.53	0.32	−0.21
Copper	0.21	0.65	0.30	−0.35
Sunflower oil	—	0.46	0.29	−0.17
Palm kernel oil	0.07	0.40	0.28	−0.12
Nickel	0.24	0.47	0.26	−0.21
Urea	0.16	0.28	0.25	−0.03
Chicken	0.00	0.07	0.24	+0.18
Coal	0.14	0.49	0.24	−0.25
Beef	0.10	0.37	0.23	−0.14
Potash	0.01	0.10	0.23	+0.13
Silver	-0.05	0.41	0.23	−0.19
Tin	0.12	0.51	0.23	−0.29
Zinc	0.12	0.44	0.21	−0.23
Coconut oil	-0.03	0.40	0.21	−0.19
Iron ore	0.08	0.42	0.20	−0.21
Corn	-0.12	0.32	0.19	−0.12
Phosphate fertilizers	-0.03	0.18	0.19	+0.01
Lead	0.02	0.40	0.19	−0.21
Soybeans	-0.06	0.46	0.18	−0.28
Sawnwood	0.06	0.47	0.15	−0.32
Tobacco	0.00	0.05	0.13	+0.08
Wheat	0.05	0.23	0.09	−0.14
Oranges	0.16	0.07	0.06	−0.01
Tea	0.12	0.33	0.06	−0.27
Natural gas	0.15	0.16	0.05	−0.11
Peanuts	0.05	0.10	0.03	−0.07
Fishmeal	-0.04	0.05	0.03	−0.02
Phosphate rock	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	+0.10
Cocoa	-0.04	0.36	0.02	−0.34
Lamb	0.02	0.23	0.02	−0.22
Logs	0.02	0.31	-0.00	−0.31
Gold	0.07	0.26	-0.04	−0.30
Bananas	0.04	-0.00	-0.05	−0.05
Coffee	-0.08	0.25	-0.08	−0.34
Plywood	0.09	0.10	-0.20	−0.30
Rice	-0.03	0.17	-0.25	−0.42

World Bank Pink Sheet primary series for each commodity against the Brent benchmark, monthly log changes; the last period is the 120 months from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Correlation is not causation, and a shared driver such as the dollar or global demand can link two prices without either affecting the other.

More patterns

Concentration: How much of each commodity comes from one country?
Producer or exporter?: Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad?
Prices in real terms: Which prices are records once inflation is removed?
Growth and decline: Whose output is rising or falling fastest?
Linked prices and seasons: Which prices move together, and which have a season?
Reserves and mining: Where are the deposits, and who digs them up?
Supply concentration: Which commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?
Land or yield?: Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better?
Supply shocks and prices: When world output falls, do prices rise?
Category price indices: How have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960?
Drawdowns and volatility: How far do prices fall, and do they recover?
Stocks and prices: Are prices lower when the world holds more stock?
How reliable is the data?: How much of world output rests on estimates?
Net exporters and importers: Who is a net seller and who a net buyer?
Country leaders: Which countries lead across the most commodities?
Export dependency: Which countries rely on one commodity?
Concentration over time: Has production spread out or narrowed?
Import dependency: Which countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier?
Supplier shifts: Who gained and lost importers' business?
Trade price against benchmark: Does traded product sell above or below the benchmark price?
Prices in other currencies: How much of a price move is the dollar?
Do prices lead each other?: Does one commodity price move before another?
Volatility over time: Are prices more volatile now than they used to be?
Seasonality: Which prices have a calendar-month pattern?
Price ratios: What does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low?
El Niño and prices: Do El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices?
Who consumes it: Which countries consume each commodity, and how much per person?
Self-sufficiency: Which large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use?
Trade flows: Who sells each commodity to whom?

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.