Commodity Origins

Which minerals and fuels are still setting production records?

Of 22 materials with a long production record, 14 set their highest output on record in the final two years on file (cobalt, copper, crude oil, graphite, lithium, natural gas, nickel, niobium, potash, rare earths, tungsten, coal, fluorspar, vanadium), while 8 peaked five or more years ago (gold, manganese, phosphate rock, zinc, silver, lead, molybdenum, tin). 3 are more than a tenth below their peak (lead, molybdenum, tin).

"Peak" here is the highest year of world mine production in the record this site holds, nothing more: it is not a forecast, and a mineral that peaked can rise again, as several did when prices rose. Output can fall because deposits decline, because prices fall, because demand changes or because a producer closes; this table does not say which. For why reserves have not fallen along with mining, see how much is left.

Peak year and peak output of world production, and latest output as a share of the peak
MaterialPeak yearLatest as share of peakYears since peakOutput at peakLatest outputRecord starts
Cobalt2025100.0%peak is latest0.31
million tonnes
0.31
2025
1901
Copper2024100.0%123
million tonnes
23
2025
1900
Crude oil2025100.0%peak is latest36.7
billion barrels
36.7
2025
1965
Graphite2025100.0%peak is latest1.8
million tonnes
1.8
2025
1900
Lithium2025100.0%peak is latest0.29
million tonnes
0.29
2025
2000
Natural gas2025100.0%peak is latest4.2
trillion cubic metres
4.2
2025
1970
Nickel2025100.0%peak is latest3.9
million tonnes
3.9
2025
1900
Niobium2024100.0%1112
thousand tonnes
112
2025
1964
Potash2025100.0%peak is latest49
million tonnes
49
2025
1919
Rare earths2025100.0%peak is latest0.39
million tonnes
0.39
2025
1900
Tungsten2025100.0%peak is latest85
thousand tonnes
85
2025
1905
Coal2024100.0%19.06
billion tonnes
9.05
2025
1981
Gold201899.7%73.31
thousand tonnes
3.3
2025
1900
Fluorspar202497.1%110.3
million tonnes
10
2025
1913
Manganese201996.6%620.7
million tonnes
20
2025
1900
Vanadium202496.0%1118
thousand tonnes
113
2025
1960
Phosphate rock201694.3%90.27
billion tonnes
0.25
2025
1900
Zinc201694.2%913.8
million tonnes
13
2025
1900
Silver201690.9%928.6
thousand tonnes
26
2025
1900
Lead201288.6%135.08
million tonnes
4.5
2025
1945
Molybdenum201485.2%110.30
million tonnes
0.26
2025
1900
Tin201785.0%80.34
million tonnes
0.29
2025
1905

World production from USGS Data Series 140 (back to 1900 where it has data), USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2022–2026 and the Energy Institute Statistical Review 2026; the same series as how much is left, (antimony, barite, chromium, iron ore, bauxite, titanium and platinum-group metals are left out because their history cannot be joined to the latest figures). The final one or two years on file are estimates, so a peak in 2024 or 2025 can move when USGS revises them. Where a record starts after 1900 (cobalt 1901, crude oil 1965, lithium 2000, natural gas 1970, niobium 1964, potash 1919, tungsten 1905, coal 1981, fluorspar 1913, vanadium 1960, lead 1945, tin 1905) the peak is the highest since that year. Quantities sort by their value in tonnes; natural gas, which has no mass figure in the data, sorts last.

More patterns

Every figure is computed from the same tables as the commodity pages. The full set is in patterns.json, and single facts from it appear each day on the facts page.