Rice from paddy to plate: grown, dried, milled, shipped

By Alykhan Virani. Published 2026-10-10.

Part 8 of the series From source to store.

Of every 100 tonnes of milled rice produced in market year 2024, about 11 tonnes were exported: world exports were 61.1 million tonnes against production of 540.7 million tonnes, both on a milled basis and for USDA’s local marketing year 2024 (USDA PSD, vintage 24 September 2026, as carried on the rice commodity page; USDA’s October 2026 report revises some of these figures). Customs exports weighed 62.1 million tonnes in 2024 (CEPII BACI, HS code 1006), 7.6% of the 819.8 million tonnes of paddy, meaning rice still in its husk, that FAOSTAT counted. That ratio spans two datasets and two forms of rice, so it understates the milled share. Only 44.4 million tonnes, 71.5% of the exported weight, was semi-milled or wholly milled rice (HS 100630); the other HS 1006 lines cover paddy, husked rice and broken rice (CEPII BACI; PIB, 22 September 2022, lists the lines). For who grows and buys it, see the earlier post.

How it is grown

Irrigated rice grows in bunded fields, ringed by low earth walls, under 3 centimeters of water after transplanting and 5 to 10 centimeters for most of the season, drained 7 to 10 days before harvest (IRRI Rice Knowledge Bank, undated pages read October 2026). In 1985, across 37 major developing-country producers, irrigated land held 49% of harvested area and 72% of rough rice output, at 4.7 tonnes per hectare against 2.1 on rain-fed lowland (IRRI, 1989, as tabulated in FAO’s Rice in human nutrition, 1993). Irrigated lowland rice takes 1,432 liters of water per kilogram on average (IRRI).

Farmers sow seed directly or transplant seedlings from a bed: IRRI gives 60 to 80 kilograms of seed per hectare for direct seeding against 40 for transplanting, and FAO says most irrigated rice is transplanted. The site’s harvest calendar, built on USDA crop calendars, shows six of eight listed countries cutting their main crop from September to December: China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Myanmar and the Philippines, which grew 69.1% of 2024 paddy (FAOSTAT).

Harvest runs from manual cutting to the combine, with labor, capital and field layout deciding which (IRRI). Grain is cut at 20% to 25% moisture, 28 to 35 days after heading in dry seasons (IRRI). World area averaged 168.8 million hectares and yield 4.75 tonnes of paddy per hectare in 2022 to 2024, with yield up 5.0% and area up 3.7% on ten years earlier (FAOSTAT, three-year averages; see land or yield).

From paddy to milled rice

Rice leaves the field at up to 25% moisture, and IRRI says to dry it ideally within 24 hours, to 14% or less for weeks to months of storage and 13% or less for 8 to 12 months, and to mill at 14% because grain that is too dry breaks (IRRI; see moisture content).

A paddy grain is roughly 20% husk, 11% bran and 69% starchy endosperm by weight (IRRI). A modern mill husks with rubber rollers, whitens in two stages, polishes, sifts out small brokens, grades and weighs (IRRI). IRRI puts the laboratory potential at 68% to 72% milled rice from paddy, with head rice (whole grain) at 50% to 58%. A modern multi-stage mill recovers 65% to 70% with 45% to 55% head rice, and a single-stage village mill 50% to 55% with 15% to 30% (IRRI, paddy-weight basis). Broken grain sells for only half the value of head rice (IRRI). Against FAOSTAT’s 819.8 million tonnes of paddy for 2024, USDA’s 540.7 million tonnes of milled output for market year 2024 is a ratio of 0.66, across two datasets.

Parboiling soaks, steams and dries paddy before milling; IRRI says it hardens the kernel and mends hairline cracks, so more grains survive milling whole. A kilogram of milled rice leaves about 0.28 kilograms of husk, and 100 kilograms of paddy yields 5 to 10 kilograms of bran holding 10% to 23% oil (IRRI).

Moving it

The UK P&I Club, a marine liability insurer, describes traded rice as mostly milled and bagged at 20 to 50 kilograms, shipped in large part as bagged cargo in bulk carriers, with smaller parcels more often in containers. Its 2023 Carefully to Carry chapter reports that wet damage generally accounts for over one third of rice cargo claims and nearly half of their cost, that most cargoes are fumigated once loading ends, usually with aluminum phosphide, and that fumigation is typically applied only when the sales contract requires it (UK P&I Club, 2023 edition, chapter 29).

India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan shipped 17.4, 10.1, 7.0 and 6.2 million tonnes in 2024, together 65.6% of HS 1006 export weight (CEPII BACI). Set against FAOSTAT paddy, those exports equal 8.0% of output for India, 30.2% for Thailand and 42.6% for Pakistan, while China shipped 0.6% (ratios across two datasets). Cambodia shipped 5.66 million tonnes under HS 1006 at an average $334 a tonne, but only 0.63 million as milled rice (HS 100630), which averaged $745 a tonne; all HS 1006 exports averaged $637 (CEPII BACI, 2024; see trade flows).

Ports show up in policy. On 5 March 2008 India allowed rice exports only through Kandla, Kakinada, Kolkata and JNPT Mumbai, and banned non-basmati exports priced below US$650 a tonne, a floor raised to US$1,000 on 27 March (DGFT Notifications 82 and 89, 2008). The World Bank’s Thai 5% broken quote is Bangkok FOB, a price that leaves out freight and insurance (see FOB, CIF and Incoterms).

Standards, storage and getting it to you

A grade counts defects. The US standard defines a broken kernel as less than three-fourths of a whole kernel and allows U.S. No. 1 long grain milled rice 4.0% broken kernels, No. 2 7.0% and No. 3 15.0% (7 CFR 868.302 and 868.310, read October 2026). Codex Standard 198-1995, whose revision year the file does not state, caps moisture at 15% and requires rice free of living insects (Codex Alimentarius). Export quotes name a broken-grain share too, each on its own national standard: in September 2026 the Thai 25% broken quote was $461 a tonne, 4.4% under the Thai 5% broken quote at $482 (World Bank Pink Sheet).

Stocks sit mostly in two countries. USDA put world ending stocks for 2025/26 at 204.2 million tonnes in its October 2026 report (the rice page carries the 24 September 2026 vintage, 201.8 million), milled basis, with China at 105.5 million (51.7%) and India at 59.0 million (28.9%), together 80.6% (USDA FAS, October 2026; the table sums different marketing years and does not split public from private). On 1 March 2025 India’s government was estimated to hold 67.5 million tonnes of rice in milled-equivalent terms, against buffer norms of 7.6 to 13.6 million (USDA FAS New Delhi, 2 April 2025; the total mixes 36.79 million of milled rice and 45.88 million of paddy, conversion not stated). Thailand’s 2025/26 ending stocks were 3.8 million tonnes (USDA FAS, October 2026), and USDA Bangkok described Thai rice stocks in April 2025 as nearly all private. The Philippines kept a 300,000-tonne buffer against national use of about 37,000 tonnes a day, roughly 8 days (Philippine Department of Agriculture, in USDA FAS Manila, 13 February 2025).

Retail can be public too: after a food security emergency on rice declared on 3 February 2025, the Philippines’ National Food Authority planned to sell buffer stock to local governments at 33 pesos a kilogram from the week of 10 February, for resale at 35 pesos (USDA FAS Manila, 13 February 2025).

Where the chain is thin

What happens when the biggest exporter closes its door?

On 9 September 2022 (DGFT notification dated 8 September) India prohibited broken-rice exports and put a 20% duty on paddy, brown rice and milled rice other than parboiled and basmati; it said broken-rice exports had risen from 51,000 tonnes in April to August 2019 to 2.13 million in April to August 2022 (PIB, 22 September 2022). On 20 July 2023 it prohibited non-basmati white rice, citing retail prices up 11.5% in a year (PIB, 20 July 2023). On 25 August 2023 it added a 20% duty on parboiled rice, and on 27 August a $1,200 a tonne floor for basmati contract registration, cut to $950 in October 2023 and removed on 14 September 2024 (USDA FAS New Delhi, 11 September 2023; PIB, 27 August 2023 and 14 September 2024). Parboiled, non-basmati white and broken rice were roughly 80% of India’s 22.1 million tonnes of calendar 2022 exports (USDA FAS New Delhi, 11 September 2023). In September and October 2024 India removed the non-basmati white ban, the basmati floor and the export duties, and it lifted the ban on broken rice on 7 March 2025 (USDA FAS New Delhi, 2 April 2025). On 24 September 2025 DGFT Notification 33/2025-26 added a condition that non-basmati rice exports be registered with APEDA by contract (APEDA trade notice, 25 September 2025).

The Thai 5% quote averaged $547 in July 2023, $635 in August and $660 in January 2024, its highest month since September 2008. It was $589 in August 2024, $580 in September and $515 in October (World Bank Pink Sheet). India’s own statement of 27 August 2023 gave Asian demand, Thai production disruptions and El Niño fears as reasons for rising world prices (PIB, 27 August 2023). See export ban.

Do monsoons and El Niño move the rice price?

India’s government cited a likely 6% shortfall in kharif (monsoon-season) paddy area and production in 2022 (PIB, 22 September 2022) and fears of El Niño among reasons for rising world prices in 2023 (PIB, 27 August 2023). The site’s data find no steady link: from 1961 to 2024 the median real change in the rice price was -2.5% in 14 El Niño years, -11.7% in 15 La Niña years and +1.2% in neutral years, a gap with a p-value of 0.27 that chance could easily produce (World Bank Pink Sheet and NOAA, as analyzed on the site; see El Niño and prices).

Do importers ever close the door too?

The Philippines began a four-month rice import ban on 1 September 2025 and extended it to 31 December 2025, and USDA estimated its 2025/26 imports at 4.40 million tonnes, 18.9% below the prior marketing year (USDA FAS Manila, 30 March 2026).

Follow the data

Start with the rice commodity page and the rice price history. The trade flows report lists the largest corridors, the harvest calendar shows when each country cuts, and producing, exporting and processing explains why the rankings differ. For terms, see Incoterms, marketing year and stocks-to-use. For the largest shippers, see India, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.

Prices are monthly averages of benchmark quotes (World Bank Pink Sheet). Nothing here is investment advice.

Prices are monthly benchmark averages that lag the market; informational only, not investment advice.