Milk from cow to carton: cooled, heated, dried, traded

By Alykhan Virani. Published 2026-10-11.

Part 14 of the series From source to store.

FAO estimated international trade in dairy products at 87.8 million tonnes in milk equivalent in 2024, 9.0% of the 979.0 million tonnes of milk produced worldwide that year (FAO Food Outlook, November 2025; the table does not say whether EU internal trade is counted). About nine tonnes of milk equivalent in every hundred were traded in 2024, an FAO estimate. The site’s trade tables follow three product lines and count product weight, not milk equivalent: in 2024 the world exported 7.49 million tonnes of concentrated milk and cream (HS 0402, $21.85 billion, including trade between EU members), 1.90 million tonnes of butter and milk fats (HS 0405) and 8.11 million tonnes of cheese and curd (HS 0406, $44.76 billion) (CEPII BACI). Production here means raw cattle milk from FAOSTAT, so tonnes of product cannot be divided by tonnes of milk.

How it is produced

Cattle supply 81% of the world’s milk, buffaloes 15%, goats 2%, sheep 1% and camels 0.4% (FAO species page, undated). FAOSTAT’s cattle-milk item counted 788.6 million tonnes in 2024: India produced 135.0 million tonnes (17.1%), the United States 102.5 million (13.0%), together 30.1%, and Germany ranked fifth with 33.8 million (4.3%) (FAOSTAT; buffalo milk is a separate item and not counted). FAOSTAT flags India’s 135.0 million tonnes as an estimate, and USDA’s 2024 cow-milk figure for India is 101.0 million tonnes (USDA FAS, July 2026); the two series are not reconciled here.

In 2025 U.S. cows averaged 11.06 tonnes (24,390 pounds) of milk, with 9.50 million cows on 23,609 licensed dairy farms, about 402 cows per farm (USDA NASS, 20 February 2026; division computed here). EU dairy cows numbered about 20 million in 2023 and averaged 7,800 kilograms each (European Commission). USDA’s 2025 figures for India (103.2 million tonnes of cow milk from 62.0 million cows in milk) give 1.66 tonnes per cow, 6.7 times lower than the U.S. figure (USDA FAS, July 2026; computed here).

About 150 million households worldwide produce milk (FAO, undated), and Indian dairy cooperatives, which buy nearly 56% of the country’s milk, enroll farmers with as few as one animal (USDA GAIN, 29 September 2025; year of the share not stated).

Cooling starts on the farm. For raw-milk products, Codex says milk not collected or used within 2 hours of milking should be cooled to 6°C or below when collected daily and 4°C or below when not (Codex CAC/RCP 57-2004, adopted 2004, amended 2007 and 2009). U.S. farm milk averaged 4.32% fat and 9.12% skim solids in 2025 (USDA ERS).

From farm to dairy

Codex names Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Coxiella burnetii as the targets of pasteurization, and sets the minimum at 72°C for 15 seconds in continuous flow or 63°C for 30 minutes in batches, and says ultra-high temperature (UHT) treatment normally runs at 135 to 150°C (Codex CAC/RCP 57-2004). Tetra Pak, a carton maker, says its UHT process heats milk to at least 135°C for four seconds (Tetra Pak sheet, 2021; another Tetra Pak sheet of the same year gives 140°C for 4 to 6 seconds).

Cheese, butter and powder concentrate milk by different amounts. FAO’s 1988 village milk-processing handbook uses 10 liters of milk per kilogram of cheese in its costing, about 11 kilograms of Gouda-type cheese per 100 liters, and gives butter as 82% fat (FAO, 1988), so at the U.S. average of 4.32% fat a kilogram of butter takes about 19 kilograms of milk (computed here, assuming all fat is recovered). Fonterra’s whole milk powder specification for the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction requires 26.0 to 28.0% fat and at most 3.5% moisture (Fonterra product bulletin, version 03.0326); at the U.S. average of 13.44% total solids, with 3.5% moisture and 27% fat that leaves 69.5% skim solids, and U.S. milk carries 9.12% skim solids, so about 7.6 kilograms of milk make a kilogram of powder (computed here; excess fat removed, no losses).

FAOSTAT counted 22.98 million tonnes of cheese from whole cow milk in 2023, with 6.42 million tonnes (27.9%) in the United States; sheep, goat and buffalo cheeses are outside that series. India makes almost no whey protein or lactose, imports both, and charges basic customs duties of 20% and 25% on them (USDA GAIN, 29 September 2025).

Moving it

The site’s milk page uses HS 0402, concentrated or sweetened milk and cream, as its trade line. In 2024 the world exported 7.49 million tonnes of it for $21.85 billion, $2.91 per kilogram, against $5.52 per kilogram for cheese and curd (CEPII BACI; unit values computed here). New Zealand supplied 28.3% of HS 0402 export value ($6.19 billion, 1.87 million tonnes), ahead of the United States (9.6%), the Netherlands (9.1%), Germany (7.4%) and France (5.1%), together 59.5%, with all shares including trade between EU members. China imported 12.2% by value ($2.66 billion), Algeria 6.1% and Mexico 4.7%, and 46.7% of U.S. exports ($975 million) went to Mexico (BACI, 2024; sums and shares computed here).

Four European countries sold 49.6% of 2024 cheese export value: Germany 14.8% ($6.62 billion), Italy 12.8%, the Netherlands 12.6% and France 9.4%. Germany was also the largest importer at 13.5% (BACI, 2024, including trade between EU members).

Fonterra packs its Regular whole milk powder to GDT specification in 25-kilogram multiwall bags and recommends storing it below 25°C and below 65% relative humidity; its eligibility list of 29 April 2025 names 53 markets, including New Zealand, six of them marked as needing importer registration (Fonterra product bulletin). Codex says the compartment of a vehicle carrying refrigerated milk products should be cooled before loading (CAC/RCP 57-2004).

Fonterra founded Global Dairy Trade (GDT) in 2008, and Fonterra, the European Energy Exchange and NZX own it in equal thirds; buyers and sellers from 60 countries trade US$2 billion to $3 billion a year, and GDT says Fonterra is by far its largest customer (GDT About page, undated, accessed October 2026). Its calendar lists Events every second Tuesday at 12:00 UTC from Event 413 on 6 October 2026 to Event 418 on 15 December, with shorter Pulse auctions on the Tuesdays between, and the results pages list eight products, among them whole and skim milk powder, butter, cheddar and mozzarella. USDA’s chart of butter export prices uses the midpoint of FOB prices, free on board at the loading port; the FOB, CIF and Incoterms explainer shows how a delivered price differs.

Packing and getting it to you

Fluid milk uses between 2.5% and 19.9% of cow milk in three exporting regions. In 2024 fluid use was 20.4 million tonnes in the United States, 19.9% of 102.5 million tonnes of cow milk; 23.5 million tonnes in the EU, 16.0% of 146.6 million; and 0.54 million tonnes in New Zealand, 2.5% of 21.5 million (USDA FAS, July 2026; the New Zealand fluid figure is 535 thousand tonnes in every year from 2022 to 2026, so it reads as a USDA estimate; shares computed here). Tetra Pak says unopened milk in its aseptic cartons keeps up to 12 months at ambient temperature, which it calls valuable in markets without a full cold chain (Tetra Pak sheet, 2021; a company claim).

Fonterra collected 1,509 million kilograms of milk solids, the fat and protein in milk, in its 2024/25 season, and paid farmers NZ$15.3 billion (Fonterra, 25 September 2025); it completed the sale of its Mainland Group, its consumer business outside Greater China plus some foodservice units, to Lactalis on 31 March 2026 (Fonterra, 31 March 2026).

Where the chain is thin

What happens to supply when feed or weather turns?

Australia’s cow milk output fell from 8.67 million tonnes in 2024 to 8.50 million in 2025, which USDA calls drought-reduced (USDA FAS, July 2026). In India feed and fodder are 60 to 70% of milk production costs (USDA GAIN, 29 September 2025).

How do animal diseases interrupt it?

The United States first reported H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows on 25 March 2024 (CDC). On 8 October 2026 USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed the virus in two Washington herds, the state’s first livestock detections, and said dairy cattle in 19 states had been infected since March 2024; both herds had tested negative in routine milk surveillance beforehand (APHIS, 8 October 2026). U.S. cow milk was 105.1 million tonnes in 2025 against 102.5 million in 2024, and FAO lists recovery from avian-influenza disruptions among the supports for higher 2025 U.S. output (USDA FAS, July 2026; FAO Food Outlook, November 2025).

What if one buyer changes its rules?

China took 12.2% of world HS 0402 import value in 2024, and New Zealand sent $1.75 billion of HS 0402 there, 28.3% of its own HS 0402 export value and 8.0% of world HS 0402 trade (BACI). China’s whole milk powder imports were 699,000 tonnes in 2022 and 409,000 in 2024, and USDA says Chinese food-safety standards requiring sterilized milk to be made from raw milk have diminished whole milk powder use in reconstituted milk; it does not date the standards or link them to the 2022 to 2024 decline (USDA FAS, July 2026). On 12 February 2026 China’s Commerce Ministry set countervailing duties of 7.4% to 11.7% on EU cream and certain cheeses, 11.7% being the general rate, in force from 13 February 2026 for five years (MOFCOM; the products are outside HS 0402); the European Dairy Association says they add to normal tariffs of about 8% on cream and 15% on cheese (EDA, 12 February 2026). India sets a 60% basic customs duty on powder with up to 1.5% fat (HS 0402.10), with a 10,000-tonne quota at 15% (USDA GAIN, 29 September 2025), and its Commerce Ministry lists dairy among products excluded from tariff concessions in the February 2026 U.S.-India framework, which is a framework and not a signed agreement (Commerce Ministry, March 2026). No changes to these measures were found through 11 October 2026.

What breaks when the cold chain breaks?

Tetra Pak’s factsheet puts shelf life at 1 to 4 weeks for perishable foods in non-aseptic packs and 6 to 12 months in aseptic ones (Tetra Pak factsheet, undated). Powder fails another way: Fonterra calls whole milk powder hygroscopic, meaning it takes up moisture, says it can pick up odors, and advises use within 24 months when stored as directed (Fonterra product bulletin, March 2026).

Follow the data

The milk page holds FAOSTAT cattle-milk production and the HS 0402 trade table, and the cheese page holds the HS 0406 table. The prices page tracks the IMF series for U.S. Class III milk, which averaged $19.66 per hundredweight (45.36 kilograms) in August 2026 against a July 2022 peak of $29.16, a U.S. domestic price rather than a world price, and the trade flows report maps the corridors. See producing, exporting and processing and HS codes for why the rankings differ, the glossary entries for tariff, quota and Incoterms, and the pages for China and the Netherlands.

FAO counts milk equivalent, FAOSTAT counts raw cattle milk (2024) and cheese from whole cow milk (2023), BACI counts product weight (2024) and USDA uses its own series, so ratios across them are not like for like. Nothing here is investment advice.

Prices are monthly benchmark averages that lag the market; informational only, not investment advice.