Peru's anchoveta swing: why one fishery moves the fishmeal market
Fishmeal is one of the few commodities where a single country’s fishing season can move the whole world’s supply. Peru made 1,171,469 tonnes in 2024, 21% of the world’s 5,704,783 tonnes (FAO FishStat). A year earlier it made 510,214, the lowest figure in the series since 1983, when a warm-water year cut the anchoveta catch to 251,738 tonnes. The interesting number is what happened everywhere else.
The rest of the world stayed put
World output rose by 579,727 tonnes between 2023 and 2024, from 5,125,056 to 5,704,783. Peru accounts for more than all of that: its output rose by 661,255 tonnes, from 510,214 to 1,171,469. Every other country together made 4,614,842 tonnes in 2023 and 4,533,315 in 2024, a change of -1.8%. Fishmeal supply is, to a good approximation, Peru’s catch plus a steady base of about 4.5 million tonnes made elsewhere (FAO FishStat).
FAO FishStat, processed production in net product weight.
A pattern, not a one-off
The swings are old. Output fell 62% between 1982 and 1983, 48% between 1997 and 1998 and 56% between 2013 and 2014, and the series’ peak, 2,417,217 tonnes in 1994, was 33% of the world total then, against 21% in 2024 (FAO FishStat). The mechanism is described on the El Niño and La Niña explainer and on the fishmeal page: a survey sets the quota before each season, and a warm-water year can cut or cancel it.
What the price did
The World Bank’s benchmark averaged $1,596/t in 2022, $1,815/t in 2023 and $1,699/t in 2024, so the year of Peru’s smallest catch was 13.7% dearer than the year before. It is not a mechanical link: in 2014, when Peru’s output fell 56%, the annual average price fell 4%, so stocks, demand from aquaculture and the price of substitutes such as soybean meal matter too (World Bank Pink Sheet). By August 2026 the price had reached $2,500/t, a record in cash terms. Removing inflation tells a different story: the real peak was $2,608/t in January 2013, in 2024 dollars, so the August 2026 price is about 90% of it. See nominal versus real prices for why that distinction matters.
Why the trade is just as concentrated
Peru also sells most of what it makes abroad: it supplied 26% of world exports of fish and crustacean meals by value in 2024 (CEPII BACI, HS 230120). Production and exports point at the same country here, unlike about half of the commodities on the producer or exporter report. The buyers matter as much as the seller: the largest customer is covered on the fishmeal page, and shrimp is one of the feeds that depends on it. Figures on this page are as of the August 2026 data and come from the sources named in each sentence.
Frequently asked questions
How much fishmeal does Peru make?
Peru made 1,171,469 tonnes of fishmeal in 2024, 21% of the world's 5,704,783 tonnes, more than any other country (FAO FishStat). Its share was 33% in 1994, when it made 2,417,217 tonnes.
Why does Peruvian fishmeal output swing so much?
Because it rests on a single fishery, the anchoveta, whose catch is capped each season by a quota. Peru's output fell 48% between 1997 and 1998 and 56% between 2013 and 2014, then rose 130% between 2023 and 2024 (FAO FishStat).
Did the rest of the world make up for Peru's shortfall in 2023?
No. The rest of the world made 4,614,842 tonnes in 2023 and 4,533,315 tonnes in 2024, a change of -1.8%, while Peru's output moved by 661,255 tonnes (FAO FishStat).
Is fishmeal at a record price?
In cash terms yes: the benchmark reached $2,500/t in August 2026, the highest monthly average in the World Bank series, 43% above a year earlier. Adjusted for US inflation the peak was $2,608/t in January 2013 (2024 dollars), so the August 2026 price is about 90% of the real peak (World Bank Pink Sheet; BLS CPI via FRED).
How much of the world's fishmeal trade is Peruvian?
Peru supplied 26% of world exports of fish and crustacean meals by value in 2024, the largest share of any country (CEPII BACI, HS 230120).