{"generated_at":"2026-10-22T09:35:21.850Z","retrieved":"Sat Oct 10 2026 17:00:00 GMT-0700 (Pacific Daylight Time)","conflicts_between_sources":[{"id":"hormuz-bypass-capacity","text":"Strait of Hormuz bypass: EIA (Mar 2026) gives about 4.7 mb/d of combined bypass capacity (Saudi East-West + UAE Abu Dhabi pipelines). EIA's October 2026 STEO estimates the East-West pipeline alone was shipping more than 5.0 mb/d of exports via Yanbu before the September 2026 attacks. One is a capacity figure for two pipelines; the other is an estimated actual export volume on one pipeline, so the register prints the second as estimated exports, not as capacity. EIA Today in Energy, Nov 21, 2023, gave 5 mb/d East-West capacity and 1.5 mb/d for the Fujairah pipeline, with about 3.5 mb/d unused. EIA does not reconcile these figures in the pages opened."},{"id":"malacca-4q25","text":"Strait of Malacca, 4Q25 (footnote): EIA's Malacca table prints 24.0 mb/d in its total row, but its components (18.0 crude oil and condensate + 6.9 petroleum products) and its summary table give 24.9. The register publishes 24.9. EIA does not explain the 24.0."},{"id":"panama-oil-flows","text":"EIA Mar 2026 table: Panama Canal oil 2.3 mb/d in FY2025 (Panama Canal Authority data, fiscal year). EIA STEO quarterly page: 2.8, 2.5, 2.8, 2.8 mb/d for 1Q25 to 4Q25 (EIA estimates based on Vortexa data, calendar quarters). Different data sources and calendars; do not compare."},{"id":"black-sea-ksk-status","text":"Novorossiysk KSK terminal after the 12 Aug 2026 attack: Platts (via Hellenic Shipping News, Aug 15) said KSK continued to operate, but only slowly; Fastmarkets (Aug 19) says KSK halted operations on Aug 13; Reuters (Sep 25) cites a source saying KSK damage was minor and it was ready to resume. The reports are dated days or weeks apart, so they may describe different moments; the register does not pick one. A KSK capacity figure of 10.85 million mt appeared in the Platts report with no scope or year stated and is not used."}],"chokepoints":[{"id":"strait-of-hormuz","name":"Strait of Hormuz","lat":26.6,"lon":56.5,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Strait of Hormuz' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"strait","summary":"Connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea; between Oman and Iran (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":20.7,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1","source_tier":"primary","note":"Annual average, 2024."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":20.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and about one-quarter of global maritime traded oil (EIA, 1H25).","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":14.7,"petroleum_products":6.1},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 3","source_tier":"primary","note":"First half of 2025 average. 89% of crude and condensate went to Asia; China, India, Japan and South Korea together took 74% (EIA, 1H25)."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":21.6,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"4Q25","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":15.9,"petroleum_products":5.7},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Last full quarter before the 2026 closure. EIA warns Hormuz AIS data has been especially unreliable since late February 2026 and 2026 volumes are revised often."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":14.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":10.9,"petroleum_products":4},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Quarter in which military action began (Feb 28, 2026). Subject to revision (EIA)."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":3.7,"petroleum_products":1.1},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Subject to revision (EIA). Breakdown components as printed by EIA; they sum to 4.8 because of rounding."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG, mainly from Qatar","volume":11.4,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"Over 20% of global LNG trade (EIA, 1H25).","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Almost one-third of LNG volumes destined for China in 1H25 passed through Hormuz (EIA)."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":10.5,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"4Q25","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":0.8,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 7.4 Bcf/d on the same page."}],"facts":[{"label":"Share of US crude oil and condensate imports coming from the Persian Gulf through the strait","value":7,"unit":"percent","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"About 0.4 mb/d of crude and condensate; about 2% of US petroleum liquids consumption."},{"label":"Intra-Saudi volumes (Persian Gulf ports to Saudi Red Sea ports) transiting the strait","value":18000,"unit":"barrels per day","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"About 0.3 million b/d in 2023; EIA ties the fall to Red Sea attacks that began at the end of 2023."},{"label":"Qatar's LNG exports through the strait as a share of global LNG supplies","value":20,"unit":"percent (EIA: 'nearly 20%')","year":"2025","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA wording: Qatar exported nearly 20% of global LNG supplies through the strait in 2025."},{"label":"Estimated crude oil production shut-ins, seven Gulf producers named in EIA's Table 1 (Kuwait, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia), average March to July 2026","value":8.5,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"Mar-Jul 2026","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, Table 1 (Hormuz closure-related disruptions in crude oil production)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Table 1 prints 8,512 thousand b/d for the March to July 2026 average. This replaces the 7.5 mb/d March-only estimate in EIA's Apr 7, 2026 press release, which covered six countries and left out Iran."},{"label":"Estimated crude oil production shut-ins, seven Gulf producers named in EIA's Table 1, monthly average at the peak","value":10.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"May 2026","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA text gives the May peak; Table 1 prints no May column. The same text gives 5.8 mb/d in August 2026 and 4.8 mb/d in September 2026, which match Table 1's totals (5,760 and 4,770 thousand b/d). EIA estimates; Hormuz closure-related."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Saudi Aramco East-West crude pipeline plus UAE Abu Dhabi pipeline","capacity":4.7,"unit":"million barrels per day (combined)","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA text: could provide about 4.7 mb/d of capacity to bypass the strait. See conflicts_between_sources: hormuz-bypass-capacity."},{"route":"Iran Goreh-Jask pipeline to the Gulf of Oman","capacity":0.3,"unit":"million barrels per day (effective)","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"A few small loadings in late 2024 (EIA)."},{"route":"UAE Jebel Dhanna to Fujairah pipeline (planned)","capacity":1.5,"unit":"million barrels per day (planned)","year":"planned by 2027 (EIA)","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"A project plan reported by EIA, not capacity in service."},{"route":"Saudi East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea: estimated actual exports, before the September 2026 attacks (not a capacity rating)","kind":"estimated_exports","capacity":5,"unit":"million barrels per day (EIA: 'more than 5.0'; estimated exports via Yanbu)","year":"before the September 2026 attacks","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA wording: before the attacks, EIA estimated this pipeline was shipping more than 5.0 million b/d of oil exports via Yanbu. An export estimate, not a capacity; see conflicts_between_sources: hormuz-bypass-capacity."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2026-02-28","event":"Military action began in the region. EIA's April 2026 STEO described the strait as 'effectively closed to shipping traffic' from that date.","effect":"EIA total oil flows (Global Energy Security tables, sourced to the August 2026 STEO): 21.6 mb/d in 4Q25, 14.9 in 1Q26 and 4.9 in 2Q26. EIA says AIS data for the strait have been especially unreliable since late February 2026 and its 2026 figures are revised often. The tables printed no 3Q26 column.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026 (closure wording only); flows from US EIA, Global Energy Security data tables: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-03-02","event":"QatarEnergy said it had ceased production of LNG and associated products after military attacks on its operating facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed (statement reported by MEED, which says the company did not name an attacker).","effect":"No later QatarEnergy production statement was opened for this register.","source_url":"https://www.meed.com/qatar-halts-lng-production-after-attack-on-facilities","source_name":"MEED, Mar 2, 2026","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-03-18","event":"An attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility in Qatar damaged two liquefaction trains, 17% of Qatari export capacity.","effect":"As of March 19, 2026 QatarEnergy estimated repairs on those trains would take up to five years (as reported by EIA).","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-06-17","event":"The United States and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding that, per EIA, sought to resume traffic through the strait.","effect":"EIA reports crude tanker movements through the strait increased after the MOU.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Jul 15, 2026","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-07","event":"Early July 2026: renewed military strikes and uncertainty over the agreement (EIA).","effect":"EIA reports prices rose in early July 2026.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Jul 15, 2026","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-09","event":"Attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline temporarily halted flows on the bypass; EIA says it was repaired and partially resumed flows as of September 22, 2026.","effect":"EIA: Vortexa ship-tracking data show oil shipments through the strait increased slightly in September as Saudi Arabia increasingly used ship-to-ship transfers along Oman's coast; estimated shut-ins averaged 4.8 mb/d in September (seven Gulf producers, Table 1).","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-10-06","event":"EIA's October 2026 STEO (released Oct 6) refers to Hormuz closure-related disruptions and assumes Middle East oil flows remain constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026, with convoys through the strait and workarounds (bypass routes, ship-to-ship transfers) increasing production and exports from the region.","effect":"An EIA assumption, stated as such; this register adopts no forecast.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-10-06","event":"Reuters, citing Kpler, reported 7 commodity vessels passing through the strait on October 6, 2026, the lowest figure since July 23 (Kpler excludes ships with transponders switched off); LSEG counted 8 vessels of all types. Reuters gave about 125 large commercial vessels a day before the war began on February 28.","effect":"The categories differ (commodity vessels versus large commercial vessels of all kinds), so the two counts are not a like-for-like comparison.","source_url":"https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/2026/10/08/hormuz-traffic-hits-lowest-level-in-two-months-as-tanker-attacks-surge/","source_name":"The National, Oct 8, 2026, carrying a Reuters report citing Kpler and LSEG","source_tier":"secondary"}]},{"id":"strait-of-malacca","name":"Strait of Malacca (with the Singapore Strait)","lat":4.63,"lon":99.3,"coordinate_source":"OpenStreetMap Nominatim search 'Strait of Malacca' (relation 'Selat Melaka' centroid), retrieved 2026-10-11. English Wikipedia carries no coordinates for the strait.","type":"strait","summary":"Links the Indian and Pacific Oceans; the shortest sea route between Middle East suppliers and East and Southeast Asian markets (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":22.5,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1","source_tier":"primary","note":"Annual average. EIA ties the 2024 dip to OPEC+ crude production cuts."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":23.2,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"Equivalent to 29% of total maritime oil flows; the largest chokepoint in the world by oil volume (EIA, 1H25).","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":16.6,"petroleum_products":6.5},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 2","source_tier":"primary","note":"China accounted for 48% of the import volumes passing through the strait in 1H25; Persian Gulf OPEC producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq) shipped nearly 60% of crude; Russia 2%."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":24.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"4Q25","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":18,"petroleum_products":6.9},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA's Malacca table prints 24.0 in the total row; its components (18.0 + 6.9) and its summary table give 24.9."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":16.6,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":11.4,"petroleum_products":5.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 21.3 mb/d. EIA does not state a cause on the page opened. Subject to revision."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":9.2,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"1H25","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 2","source_tier":"primary","note":"Qatar's share of LNG through the strait rose from 14% in 2020 to 28% in 1H25 (EIA)."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":5.5,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"4Q25 was 10.1 Bcf/d on the same page."}],"facts":[{"label":"Width of the strait at its narrowest point (Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait)","value":1.7,"unit":"miles","year":"EIA, Aug 11, 2017","computed":"1.7 mi x 1.609344 km/mi = 2.74 km","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32452","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Aug 11, 2017","source_tier":"primary","note":"A 2017 EIA measurement statement. English Wikipedia gives conflicting widths and was not used."},{"label":"US crude oil and condensate sent from the Atlantic coast through Malacca to East Asia","value":800000,"unit":"barrels per day","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"The US Pacific coast received 200,000 b/d via Malacca, mainly from the Middle East."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait (Indonesian archipelago), or a longer route around the entire archipelago","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA names the alternatives; no capacity figure given."},{"route":"Myanmar to southwest China crude oil pipeline","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Carries Middle East crude; no capacity figure given by EIA on that page."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2023 onward","event":"Piracy and armed robbery attacks on ships increased after 2023, especially around Singapore (EIA citing the IMB Piracy Reporting Centre).","effect":"No flow effect stated by EIA.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"suez-canal-sumed","name":"Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline","lat":30.705,"lon":32.344,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Suez Canal' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"canal","summary":"Egypt; connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. The SUMED pipeline runs between Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products via canal and SUMED pipeline (EIA 'total oil')","volume":8.8,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2023","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1","source_tier":"primary","note":"Pre-diversion year."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products via canal and SUMED pipeline (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.8,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products via canal and SUMED pipeline (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"Suez/SUMED and Bab el-Mandeb together: about 6% of total seaborne-traded oil in 1H25 (EIA). Both volumes were approximately half of 2023 flows.","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.8,"petroleum_products":2.1},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 4","source_tier":"primary","note":"Russia moved more crude and condensate through the canal and Bab el-Mandeb than any other country in 1H25 (EIA)."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products via canal and SUMED pipeline (EIA 'total oil')","volume":5.8,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":3.6,"petroleum_products":2.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"4Q25 was 5.9 mb/d on the same page."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG through the Suez Canal","volume":4.1,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2023","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 4","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG through the Suez Canal","volume":0.5,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 4","source_tier":"primary","note":"Since 2023, LNG through the canal is almost entirely for delivery to Egypt or Jordan (EIA)."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG through the Suez Canal","volume":1.5,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 1.8 Bcf/d."}],"facts":[{"label":"SUMED pipeline capacity (Ain Sukhna to Sidi Kerir; owned by Mubadala Energy)","value":2.5,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"label":"Extra transit time for tankers if Suez and SUMED are closed (Arabian Sea to Europe)","value":15,"unit":"days (approximately)","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"label":"Voyage time, Persian Gulf to the ARA (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) hub, via Suez Canal","value":19,"unit":"days","year":"EIA, Feb 1, 2024","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61363","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Feb 1, 2024","source_tier":"primary","note":"Via the Cape of Good Hope: nearly 35 days (same article)."},{"label":"Vessels transiting the canal, calendar 2023","value":26400,"unit":"vessels (about)","year":"2023","source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-suez-canal-to-fully-operate-as-major-shipping-lines-resume-transits-sca-chairman/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Jan 23, 2025, relaying Ahram Online / Suez Canal Authority statement","source_tier":"secondary","note":"75 to 80 ships per day in 2023 per the same article."},{"label":"Vessels transiting the canal, calendar 2024","value":13200,"unit":"vessels (about)","year":"2024","source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-suez-canal-to-fully-operate-as-major-shipping-lines-resume-transits-sca-chairman/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Jan 23, 2025, relaying Ahram Online / Suez Canal Authority statement","source_tier":"secondary","note":"About 50% below 2023; 32 to 35 ships per day in 2024 per the same article."},{"label":"Canal revenue, calendar 2023","value":10.2,"unit":"billion US dollars","year":"2023","source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-suez-canal-to-fully-operate-as-major-shipping-lines-resume-transits-sca-chairman/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Jan 23, 2025, relaying Ahram Online / Suez Canal Authority statement","source_tier":"secondary","note":"2024: $4 billion (down 60.7%) per the same article. A Dec 11, 2025 Xinhua item via Hellenic Shipping News quotes the SCA chairman giving $3.9 billion for 2024. No later Suez Canal Authority figure was opened for this register; shares of Suez and Bab el-Mandeb flows must not be added together."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Cape of Good Hope","kind":"actual_flow","capacity":9.1,"unit":"million barrels per day (total oil actually moving around the cape, both directions)","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"A flow, not a capacity rating; EIA says vessels diverting around the cape bear significantly higher cost and time."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2023-11","event":"Houthi militia attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea began; some vessels took longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding both Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal (EIA).","effect":"EIA total oil through Suez/SUMED fell from 8.8 mb/d (2023) to 4.8 mb/d (2024); LNG through the canal fell from 4.1 to 0.5 Bcf/d.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2023-12 to 2024-12","event":"Canal transits and revenue roughly halved: about 26,400 vessels in 2023 vs about 13,200 in 2024; revenue $10.2 billion vs $4 billion.","effect":"As stated by the Suez Canal Authority via Ahram Online.","source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/egypt-suez-canal-to-fully-operate-as-major-shipping-lines-resume-transits-sca-chairman/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Jan 23, 2025, relaying Ahram Online / SCA","source_tier":"secondary"}]},{"id":"bab-el-mandeb","name":"Bab el-Mandeb Strait","lat":12.583,"lon":43.333,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Bab al-Mandab Strait' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"strait","summary":"Between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East; connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":9.3,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2023","share_text":"12% of seaborne oil trade and 8% of LNG trade in 1H23 (EIA, Feb 1, 2024).","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1; share from US EIA, Today in Energy, Feb 1, 2024","source_tier":"primary","note":"The 12% and 8% shares are for 1H23 and come from the Feb 2024 article, not the 2023 annual figure."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.1,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 1","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.2,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"Suez/SUMED and Bab el-Mandeb together: about 6% of total seaborne-traded oil in 1H25 (EIA).","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.4,"petroleum_products":1.8},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 4","source_tier":"primary","note":"Approximately half of 2023 flows (EIA)."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":5.4,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"4Q25","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":3.2,"petroleum_products":2.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Calendar quarter; EIA estimate based on Vortexa data. Subject to revision."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":5.6,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":3.4,"petroleum_products":2.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Subject to revision."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":8.1,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":6.1,"petroleum_products":2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Crude and condensate rose from 3.2 mb/d in 4Q25 to 6.1 in 2Q26. EIA gives no cause for the rise on the page opened. Subject to revision."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":4.2,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2023","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 4","source_tier":"primary","note":"0.0 in 2024 and 1H25 (ships avoided the strait because of security concerns and high insurance rates, EIA); 3.0 in 1Q26 in EIA's quarterly tables."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG (EIA quarterly tables; the page prints a dash, not a value, for 2Q25, 3Q25 and 2Q26)","volume":1.1,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"4Q25","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"LNG was 0.0 in 2024 and 1H25 in EIA's annual table; the quarterly page shows 0.3 in 1Q25 and 3.0 in 1Q26. EIA gives no cause on the page opened."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG (EIA quarterly tables)","volume":3,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"1Q26","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Subject to revision."}],"facts":[{"label":"Crude oil flows through Bab el-Mandeb in December 2023 vs the January to November 2023 average","value":-18,"unit":"percent (about 18% lower)","year":"Dec 2023","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61363","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Feb 1, 2024","source_tier":"primary","note":"Clean product flows were 30% lower in December than in the rest of 2023 (same article)."},{"label":"Decline in Saudi crude oil and condensate volumes via Bab el-Mandeb, 2023 to 2024","value":50,"unit":"percent (EIA: 'more than 50%')","year":"2023 to 2024","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Saudi volumes through Suez/SUMED fell only about 10% as Saudi exports shifted to the East-West pipeline and Red Sea terminals."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Cape of Good Hope (avoids Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal)","kind":"actual_flow","capacity":9.1,"unit":"million barrels per day (total oil actually moving around the cape, both directions)","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"A flow, not capacity."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2023-11","event":"Yemen-based Houthi militia attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea began (EIA).","effect":"Total oil through Bab el-Mandeb fell from 9.3 mb/d (2023) to 4.1 mb/d (2024); LNG fell from 4.2 Bcf/d to 0.0.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2024-01-12","event":"Combined Maritime Forces (a partnership of 39 nations) warned ships to avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.","effect":"EIA expected the advisory to reduce passages through January 2024.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61363","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Feb 1, 2024","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-07","event":"Reuters, dated Aug 24, 2026, reports that the Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea in July 2026, and that on Aug 24 the Houthis said they attacked a vessel off Saudi Arabia's port of Yanbu. The report says there was no confirmation or comment from Saudi authorities.","effect":"The same report says the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile 63 nautical miles (116.7 km) west of Yanbu, with all crew safe. These are claims and reports, not EIA flow data.","computed":"63 nmi x 1.852 km/nmi = 116.7 km","source_url":"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/08/24/yemen-s-houthis-say-they-attacked-ship-off-saudi-arabia-s-yanbu-no-saudi-confirmation","source_name":"Reuters, Aug 24, 2026, as carried by Internazionale","source_tier":"secondary"}]},{"id":"turkish-straits","name":"Turkish Straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles)","lat":41.119,"lon":29.075,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Bosporus' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. Dardanelles on the same source: 40.2, 26.4.","secondary_points":[{"name":"Dardanelles","lat":40.2,"lon":26.4}],"type":"strait","summary":"Bosporus links the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara; Dardanelles links the Sea of Marmara with the Aegean and Mediterranean (EIA). Both in Turkiye.","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products through the Dardanelles (EIA 'total oil')","volume":3.7,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"EIA: an estimated 3.7 mb/d through the Turkish Straits in 1H25, equivalent to 5% of global maritime trade; about 60% crude oil.","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.2,"petroleum_products":1.5},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 6","source_tier":"primary","note":"Kazakhstan is the largest exporter through the straits. 2024 was 3.6 mb/d."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products through the Bosporus (EIA 'total oil')","volume":3.3,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.1,"petroleum_products":1.3},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 6","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024 was 3.3 mb/d. Do not add the Bosporus and Dardanelles rows together: the same cargoes can appear in both."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products through the Dardanelles (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.1,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.7,"petroleum_products":1.4},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 3.3 mb/d; 4Q25 was 3.7. Subject to revision."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG through the Dardanelles (to the Marmara LNG terminal)","volume":0.6,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"1H25","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 6","source_tier":"primary","note":"Turkiye does not allow LNG cargoes through the Bosporus because of safety concerns (EIA)."}],"facts":[{"label":"Length of the Bosporus","value":17,"unit":"nautical miles","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","computed":"17 nmi x 1.852 km/nmi = 31.5 km","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"label":"Length of the Dardanelles","value":37,"unit":"nautical miles","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","computed":"37 nmi x 1.852 km/nmi = 68.5 km","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"label":"Narrowest width of the Turkish Straits (EIA: less than)","value":0.5,"unit":"nautical miles (upper bound)","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","computed":"0.5 nmi x 1.852 km/nmi = 0.93 km","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA wording: less than half a nautical mile wide at the narrowest point."},{"label":"Vessels transiting the straits","value":45000,"unit":"vessels (EIA: 'more than')","year":"2024","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), citing Turkish Chamber of Shipping Maritime Sector Report 2025","source_tier":"primary","note":null}],"bypass":[{"route":"Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (Azerbaijan to Ceyhan, Turkiye)","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Named by EIA as an alternative; no capacity figure given."},{"route":"Iraq-to-Turkiye pipeline (Kurdistan region)","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Returned to operation in September 2025 after being out of service since March 2023 (EIA)."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2022-07-22 to 2023-07-17","event":"UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative (Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi ports; Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul) operated until its third term expired on 17 July 2023 and was not renewed.","effect":"See black-sea-grain-ports. The UN page opened gives no tonnage.","source_url":"https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/","source_name":"United Nations, Black Sea Grain Initiative page","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"panama-canal","name":"Panama Canal","lat":9.12,"lon":-79.75,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Panama Canal' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"canal","summary":"Connects the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic; 50 miles long; narrowest point is the Culebra Cut (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Petroleum and other liquids, mostly refined products, through the canal (EIA 'total oil')","volume":2,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"FY2024 (Oct 1, 2023 to Sep 30, 2024)","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 7 (Panama Canal Authority data, EIA conversions)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Drought year. FY2023 was 2.2 mb/d."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Petroleum and other liquids, mostly refined products, through the canal (EIA 'total oil')","volume":2.3,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"FY2025 (Oct 1, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025)","share_text":"About 3% of total global maritime petroleum and petroleum product flows (EIA, FY2025).","breakdown":{"refined_products":2.2,"crude_oil":0.1},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 7","source_tier":"primary","note":"Fiscal year, not calendar. Products ride on smaller vessels able to use the canal. See conflicts_between_sources: panama-oil-flows."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Petroleum and other liquids, mostly refined products, through the canal (EIA 'total oil', calendar quarter, EIA estimates based on Vortexa)","volume":3.2,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"petroleum_products":3,"crude_oil_and_condensate":0.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Different data source and calendar from the FY2025 row; do not compare."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG, mainly from the US Gulf Coast to western South America and Asia","volume":0.3,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day (EIA: 'less than')","year":"FY2025","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Down from about 2.5 Bcf/d in FY2021; EIA ties the fall to declining water levels and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope."}],"facts":[{"label":"Canal transits","value":13404,"unit":"transits (3,342 Neopanamax; 10,062 Panamax)","year":"FY2025 (last full fiscal year with a published result; preliminary and unaudited)","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-maintains-operational-and-financial-strength/","source_name":"Panama Canal Authority, FY2025 results release (released 8 Oct 2025; preliminary, unaudited)","source_tier":"primary","note":"FY2024: 11,240 transits (ACP, same release)."},{"label":"Cargo tonnage, all segments","value":489.1,"unit":"million CP/SUAB tons (ACP's unit label; not converted)","year":"FY2025 (last full fiscal year with a published result; preliminary and unaudited)","source_url":"https://pancanal.com/en/panama-canal-maintains-operational-and-financial-strength/","source_name":"Panama Canal Authority, FY2025 results release","source_tier":"primary","note":"FY2024: 423.1 million. ACP names container and LPG as main growth segments; says LNG came in below expectations."},{"label":"Length of the canal","value":50,"unit":"miles","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","computed":"50 mi x 1.609344 km/mi = 80.5 km","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Narrowest point is the Culebra Cut, nearly 9 miles long (about 14.5 km: 9 mi x 1.609344)."},{"label":"Trans-Panama Pipeline throughput (Chiriqui Grande to Charco Azul)","value":400000,"unit":"barrels per day (EIA: 'nearly')","year":"2024 and 2025","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Pipeline capacity is 864,000 b/d (see bypass)."},{"label":"US ethane exports to China (a canal-using flow)","value":230000,"unit":"barrels per day (EIA: 'more than')","year":"2024","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA says China's tariff on US propane, imposed in Q2 2025, cut propane transits."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Trans-Panama Pipeline (crude oil only)","capacity":864000,"unit":"barrels per day","year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"route":"Straits of Magellan, Cape Horn and Drake Passage at the southern tip of South America","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":"EIA Mar 2026 edition","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"EIA: these routes add up to 8,000 miles of travel or involve dangerous waterways; 8,000 mi x 1.609344 = 12,875 km (computed). EIA also names routing east via Suez or the Cape of Good Hope."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2023-07-30","event":"Daily transits capped at 32 because of low Gatun Lake water; cut to 24 per day from November 7, 2023, against a typical 36 (EIA, citing the Panama Canal Authority).","effect":"In August 2023 more than 160 vessels waited to transit; Neopanamax ships waited at least 17 days. VLGC freight Houston to Chiba reached $250 per ton in the week ending Sep 29, 2023, the highest since publication began in 2016; some VLGCs returned via Suez or the Cape.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60842","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 31, 2023","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2024-06-27","event":"EIA reports the Panama Canal Authority will raise booking slots to 35 per day in August 2024 (10 Neopanamax, 25 Panamax), as rainfall improved.","effect":"EIA says oil product flows recovered in FY2025 after water levels returned to average (Mar 2026 edition).","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62408","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Jun 27, 2024","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-09-03","event":"The Maritime Executive reported on Aug 20, 2026 that the Panama Canal Authority planned to cut daily transits from 34 to 32 in a first step effective September 3, with a second cut in mid-September removing two more daily transits in the Panamax locks. The article cites worsening drought and describes the measures as temporary modifications to lock transit capacity.","effect":"The article's Neopanamax and Panamax slot counts are ambiguous and are not repeated here; they would need checking against the Authority's own notice. Whether the second cut took effect was not checked.","source_url":"https://maritime-executive.com/article/panama-canal-begins-reducing-daily-transits-due-to-declining-water-levels","source_name":"The Maritime Executive, Aug 20, 2026","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-10-01","event":"EIA cites 'ongoing drought conditions at the Panama Canal' linked to El Nino as reducing US propane exports; low water levels limit the number of ships that can transit each day and make using the canal more expensive.","effect":"EIA gives no transit counts in the article.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68244","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Oct 1, 2026","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"danish-straits","name":"Danish Straits","lat":55.333,"lon":11,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Great Belt' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. The Oresund on the same source: 55.75, 12.75.","secondary_points":[{"name":"Oresund","lat":55.75,"lon":12.75}],"type":"strait","summary":"A series of channels connecting the Baltic Sea to the North Sea (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.9,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"Equivalent to 6% of global maritime trade (EIA, 1H25); almost 60% higher than in 2021 (EIA).","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":2.7,"petroleum_products":2.2},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 5","source_tier":"primary","note":"2021 was 3.1 mb/d; 2023 was 5.0. Russia remained the largest exporter in 1H25 but shipped mostly from the Baltic to Asia and Turkiye rather than to western Europe and the US."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products (EIA 'total oil')","volume":4.7,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":3,"petroleum_products":1.7},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"4Q25 was 5.0 mb/d."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG","volume":1.6,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"1H25","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 5","source_tier":"primary","note":"About triple the 2020 volume (EIA). The US became the largest LNG supplier to countries east of the straits in 2021."}],"facts":[{"label":"Oil flows through the Kiel Canal (alternative route; small tankers, virtually only oil products)","value":0.2,"unit":"million barrels per day (EIA: 'nearly 200,000 b/d')","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 5","source_tier":"primary","note":"Kiel Canal flows are not included in the Danish Straits figure."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Kiel Canal (Germany)","kind":"actual_flow","capacity":0.2,"unit":"million barrels per day (actual flow, 1H25; not a capacity rating)","year":"1H25","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Serves small tankers only."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2022","event":"After the start of the war in Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, Russian flows through the straits shifted from western Europe toward Asia and Turkiye (EIA).","effect":"Total oil through the straits rose from 3.1 mb/d (2021) to 5.0 mb/d (2023) in EIA's table.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"cape-of-good-hope","name":"Cape of Good Hope (bypass route)","lat":-34.358,"lon":18.476,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Cape of Good Hope' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"route","summary":"Not a chokepoint; a major trade route and the alternative to Bab el-Mandeb, Suez and (in part) Panama (EIA).","commodities":[{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products around the cape, both directions (EIA 'total oil')","volume":6.1,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2022","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 8","source_tier":"primary","note":"2023 was 6.2 mb/d; 2024 was 9.3 mb/d (EIA Table 8)."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products around the cape, both directions (EIA 'total oil')","volume":9.1,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"1H25","share_text":"About 11% of all seaborne-traded oil in 1H25; up 3 mb/d from 2022 (EIA).","breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":6.1,"petroleum_products":2.9},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 8","source_tier":"primary","note":"5.2 mb/d of crude moved eastbound to Asia; more than 40% of crude imports traversing the cape went to China. Origins: US 23%, West Africa 28%, South America and Mexico 29%. 2024 was 9.3 mb/d."},{"slug":"crude-oil","flow_text":"Crude oil, condensate and petroleum products around the cape, both directions (EIA 'total oil')","volume":9.4,"unit":"million barrels per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"breakdown":{"crude_oil_and_condensate":6.7,"petroleum_products":2.7},"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 8.2 mb/d; 4Q25 was 9.9."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG around the cape","volume":7.8,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026), Table 8","source_tier":"primary","note":"The high in EIA's 2020 to 1H25 series; 5.7 Bcf/d in 1H25 as US-China trade tensions and a mild Asian winter cut imports."},{"slug":"natural-gas","flow_text":"LNG around the cape","volume":9.7,"unit":"billion cubic feet per day","year":"2Q26","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/energysecurity/article.php","source_name":"US EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global Energy Security data tables (tables sourced to the August 2026 STEO, released Aug 12, 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"1Q26 was 4.8 Bcf/d; 2Q25 was 7.0."}],"facts":[{"label":"Voyage time, Persian Gulf to the ARA hub, around the Cape of Good Hope","value":35,"unit":"days (EIA: 'nearly')","year":"EIA, Feb 1, 2024","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61363","source_name":"US EIA, Today in Energy, Feb 1, 2024","source_tier":"primary","note":"19 days via the Suez Canal (same article)."}],"bypass":[],"disruptions":[{"date":"2023 to 2024","event":"Panama Canal drought and restrictions (2023) and Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea disruptions from November 2023 pushed many oil and LNG vessels onto the cape route (EIA).","effect":"EIA: the Panama disruption resolved in 2024, while Suez and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions kept flows around the cape above historical averages.","source_url":"https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints","source_name":"US EIA, World Oil Transit Chokepoints (updated Mar 3, 2026)","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"black-sea-grain-ports","name":"Black Sea grain ports (Odesa group; Novorossiysk)","lat":46.504,"lon":30.744,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Port of Odesa' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. Port of Novorossiysk on the same source: 44.733, 37.783.","secondary_points":[{"name":"Port of Novorossiysk","lat":44.733,"lon":37.783}],"type":"port-group","summary":"Ukraine's Odesa cluster of deep-water ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa, Pivdennyi) and Russia's Novorossiysk terminals; the grain leaves through the Turkish Straits.","commodities":[{"slug":"wheat","flow_text":"Ukrainian wheat exports, all modes (Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine data as reported by USDA AMS)","volume":13.3,"unit":"million metric tons","year":"2025","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024: 19.9 mmt (down 32.9% in 2025, as USDA states). In 2025 Ukraine was the world's fifth-largest wheat exporter (USDA). All modes, not only the ports."},{"slug":"corn","flow_text":"Ukrainian corn exports, all modes","volume":17.6,"unit":"million metric tons","year":"2025","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024: 28.8 mmt (down 39.1%, USDA). In 2025 Ukraine was the world's fourth-largest corn exporter (USDA)."},{"slug":"soybeans","flow_text":"Ukrainian soybean exports, all modes","volume":3.37,"unit":"million metric tons","year":"2025","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024: 3.35 mmt."},{"slug":null,"name":"Wheat, corn and soybeans (Ukraine), share leaving through ports","flow_text":"Share of Ukrainian corn, wheat and soybean exports moving through ports (Black Sea ports and Danube river ports; all modes = 100%)","volume":95,"unit":"percent","year":"2025","share_text":"91% in 2024 (USDA AMS).","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Figure shows 94.9% in 2025 and 91.4% in 2024. Rail through western border crossings was about 5% (1.6 mmt) and trucks under 1% (about 0.2 mmt) in 2025."},{"slug":null,"name":"Grains and oilseeds (Ukraine), Odesa ports' share of sea exports","flow_text":"Share of Ukraine's sea exports of grains and oilseeds handled by the Odesa cluster (Chornomorsk, Odesa, Pivdennyi)","volume":96,"unit":"percent","year":"2025","share_text":"87% in 2024; the Danube ports (Izmail, Reni, Ust-Dunaysk) handled 13% in 2024 and 4% in 2025 (USDA AMS).","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026), citing Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority and CFTS","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":null,"name":"Grain (Russia; crop mix not stated in the source)","flow_text":"Grain exported by the Novorossiysk Bakery Products Plant (NKHP) terminal","volume":6.23,"unit":"million metric tons","year":"2025-26 marketing year (July to June)","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russian-grain-exports-disrupted-after-novorossiysk-terminals-attack/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Aug 15, 2026, relaying Platts (S&P Global)","source_tier":"secondary","note":"Same Platts report: Novorossiysk Grain Terminal (NZT, Demetra Holding) has export capacity of 8.5 million mt per year. Reuters (Sep 25, 2026) gives NKHP's annual capacity as 7.1 million metric tons. KSK capacity figures differ between sources and none is used."}],"facts":[{"label":"Ukrainian truck cost index, grain, 100 miles","value":13.85,"unit":"US dollars per metric ton per 100 miles","year":"2025 average","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026), citing Zernovoz","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024 average: $15.19 (down 8.8% per USDA)."},{"label":"Ukrainian wheat FOB price, average","value":231.67,"unit":"US dollars per metric ton","year":"2025","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026), Table 1a (Fastmarkets, IGC, AMS)","source_tier":"primary","note":"2024: $215.47. US Gulf FOB Hard Red Winter 11%: $243.26 in 2025 (same table)."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Rail to Danube ports via Moldova, trucking to Danube ports, rail and trucks across western EU borders","kind":"actual_flow","capacity":1.6,"unit":"million metric tons by rail through western border crossings (actual, 2025)","year":"2025","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026), Table 1b","source_tier":"primary","note":"An actual volume of wheat, corn and soybeans, not a capacity. Down from 3.7 mmt in 2024 (2023 to 2024 values are estimates per USDA); Danube trucking was costlier than Odesa. Dnipro and Southern Bug barge routes: zero since 2022."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2022-04 (second quarter)","event":"The Port of Mykolaiv has been closed to navigation since the second quarter of 2022 (USDA AMS).","effect":"USDA replaced Mykolaiv-based routes with Izmail and Constanta routes in its cost analysis.","source_url":"https://ams-prod.azureedge.us/sites/default/files/media/Ukraine_Grain_Transportation_2026_July.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Ukraine Grain Transportation (published July 2026)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2022-07-22 to 2023-07-17","event":"UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative: signed 22 July 2022 (per the UN), not renewed after its third term expired on 17 July 2023.","effect":"For context, USDA's series of the share of Ukraine's wheat, corn and soybean exports leaving through ports: 69.3% (March to December 2022), 80.1% (2023), 91.4% (2024), 94.9% (2025). USDA does not attribute these shares to the initiative.","source_url":"https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/","source_name":"United Nations, Black Sea Grain Initiative page (dates); USDA AMS Ukraine Grain Transportation, Jul 2026, Figure 1b (shares)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-07-30","event":"The Taman grain terminal ZTKT (annual capacity 5.5 million tons) was hit on July 30, 2026 and could not load grain; Reuters says it was unclear when operations could resume.","effect":"Reuters' analysis of industry data: three of nine major Russian Black Sea and Azov terminals suffered serious damage, affecting about one-fifth of grain-loading capacity (four anonymous sources familiar with terminal operations).","source_url":"https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/09/25/russia-can-restart-80-of-black-sea-grain-export-terminals-if-attacks-stop","source_name":"Reuters, Sep 25, 2026, as carried by The Star (Malaysia)","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-08-12","event":"After an overnight attack on Novorossiysk grain terminals on August 12, 2026, the Novorossiysk Bakery Products Plant (NKHP) and the Novorossiysk Grain Terminal (NZT) suspended operations; Platts reported on Aug 15 that KSK continued to operate, but only slowly.","effect":"See the Aug 13 and Sep 25 entries for later reports. Platts' report also carried unnamed Russian sellers' estimates, which are not repeated here.","source_url":"https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/russian-grain-exports-disrupted-after-novorossiysk-terminals-attack/","source_name":"Hellenic Shipping News, Aug 15, 2026, relaying Platts (S&P Global)","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-08-13","event":"Fastmarkets reported on Aug 19, 2026 that the KSK terminal halted operations on August 13.","effect":"SovEcon, as reported by Fastmarkets: as of August 13, more than 95% of Russia's grain export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin was estimated to be offline.","source_url":"https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/russias-weekly-wheat-exports-rise-26-to-484759-tonnes-novorossiysk-shutdown-threatens-near-term-flows-baltic-risks-emerge/","source_name":"Fastmarkets, Aug 19, 2026 (citing SovEcon)","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-09-25","event":"Reuters reported that NKHP (annual capacity 7.1 million metric tons) was the seriously damaged Novorossiysk terminal, with repairs taking up to six months by Reuters' account and up to four months by the company's; a source said damage at KSK and NZT was minor and both were ready to resume operations.","effect":"Reuters' analysis says terminals with about 53 million tons of combined capacity were idle for security reasons but could resume, out of about 67 million tons of total regional capacity. Status after September 25 was not checked.","source_url":"https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2026/09/25/russia-can-restart-80-of-black-sea-grain-export-terminals-if-attacks-stop","source_name":"Reuters, Sep 25, 2026, as carried by The Star (Malaysia)","source_tier":"secondary"}]},{"id":"lower-mississippi","name":"Lower Mississippi River (Memphis to the New Orleans port region)","lat":30.051,"lon":-90.5,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Port of South Louisiana' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. Memphis on the same source: 35.146, -90.052.","secondary_points":[{"name":"Memphis","Tennessee (gauge location cited by USDA)":null,"lat":35.146,"lon":-90.052}],"type":"river","summary":"Barge route to the Gulf ports for US grain bound for export; barges moved 44% of all US grain exports in 2022 (USDA AMS, nationwide).","commodities":[{"slug":null,"name":"All grains, US exports by barge, 2022 share","flow_text":"Share of US grain exports moved by barge (railroads moved 45%)","volume":44,"unit":"percent","year":"2022","share_text":"Same series: 46% in 2020 (earlier edition, listed below).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), citing the 1984-2022 modal share update","source_tier":"primary","note":"National barge share of US grain destined for export; the brochure does not split it by river."},{"slug":"corn","flow_text":"Share of US corn exports moved by barge, 1984-2022 update","volume":48,"unit":"percent","year":"2022","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), citing the 1984-2022 modal share update","source_tier":"primary","note":"National barge share of US grain destined for export; the brochure does not split it by river. Railroads moved 44% of corn."},{"slug":"soybeans","flow_text":"Share of US soybean exports moved by barge, 1984-2022 update","volume":48,"unit":"percent","year":"2022","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), citing the 1984-2022 modal share update","source_tier":"primary","note":"Railroads moved 38% of soybeans."},{"slug":"wheat","flow_text":"Share of US wheat exports moved by barge, 1984-2022 update","volume":32,"unit":"percent","year":"2022","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), citing the 1984-2022 modal share update","source_tier":"primary","note":"Railroads moved 58% of wheat."},{"slug":"corn","flow_text":"History, earlier edition: share of US corn exports moved by barge (final movement to export ports; includes the Columbia-Snake system)","volume":53,"unit":"percent","year":"2020","share_text":"5-year average 51% (USDA AMS, Table 3; the report does not print the years).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/TransportationofUSGrainsModalShare.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Transportation of U.S. Grains: A Modal Share Analysis, 1978-2020 Update (Aug 2023), Table 3","source_tier":"primary","note":"Scope: barge to Atlantic, Pacific, Central/East/West Gulf receiving ranges; not only the Mississippi."},{"slug":"soybeans","flow_text":"History, earlier edition: share of US soybean exports moved by barge (same scope)","volume":53,"unit":"percent","year":"2020","share_text":"5-year average 55% (USDA AMS).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/TransportationofUSGrainsModalShare.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Transportation of U.S. Grains: A Modal Share Analysis, 1978-2020 Update (Aug 2023), Table 3","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":"wheat","flow_text":"History, earlier edition: share of US wheat exports moved by barge (same scope)","volume":28,"unit":"percent","year":"2020","share_text":"5-year average 30% (USDA AMS).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/TransportationofUSGrainsModalShare.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Transportation of U.S. Grains: A Modal Share Analysis, 1978-2020 Update (Aug 2023), Table 3","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":null,"name":"All grains (corn, wheat, soybeans, sorghum, barley), US exports by barge","flow_text":"History, earlier edition: tonnage of US grain exports moved by barge (same scope)","volume":75141,"unit":"thousand tons (as printed; the report does not say short or metric)","year":"2020","share_text":"46% of all grain exports in 2020 (USDA AMS).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/TransportationofUSGrainsModalShare.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, Transportation of U.S. Grains: A Modal Share Analysis, 1978-2020 Update (Aug 2023), Table 2","source_tier":"primary","note":"Barge export tonnage, 2020, all five grains. Scope includes Columbia-Snake River barge movements."},{"slug":null,"name":"Corn, wheat and soybeans (US), downbound barge tonnage","flow_text":"Corn, wheat and soybeans carried downbound through Mississippi Locks 27, Ohio Locks and Dam 52 and Arkansas Lock and Dam 1","volume":26.8,"unit":"million metric tons (source: 29.6 million short tons)","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Calendar 2024."},{"slug":null,"name":"Grain inspected for export, Mississippi Gulf region (share of total)","flow_text":"Share of grain inspected and/or weighed for export that was in the Mississippi Gulf region","volume":48,"unit":"percent","year":"2024","share_text":"Mississippi Gulf, Texas Gulf and East Gulf together: 51% (65.4 mmt) of 128.5 mmt inspected for export in 2024 (USDA AMS). Pacific Northwest: 28% (35.9 mmt).","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), Figure 2","source_tier":"primary","note":null},{"slug":null,"name":"Fertilizer (all types)","flow_text":"Fertilizer moved northbound through the locks on the Mississippi River System","volume":22.5,"unit":"million metric tons","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Up 9% from 2023 (USDA). 10.7 mmt of fertilizer imported at the Ports of New Orleans in 2024."}],"facts":[{"label":"Grain barges unloaded in the New Orleans port region","value":33715,"unit":"barges","year":"2024","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Up 6% from 2023 (USDA)."},{"label":"Cargo capacity of a typical US barge at 9-foot draft","value":1360.8,"unit":"metric tons (source: 1,500 short tons)","year":"USDA AMS, Apr 2025","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Each foot of reduced draft costs about 200 short tons (181.4 mt) of capacity (USDA)."},{"label":"Grain held by a 15-barge tow","value":875000,"unit":"bushels (about)","year":"USDA AMS, Apr 2025","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary","note":"USDA equates this to almost 216 rail cars or 1,000 trucks."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Rail and truck to Gulf ports; rail to Pacific Northwest ports","kind":"modal_share","capacity":45,"unit":"percent of 2022 US grain exports moved by rail (barge: 44%)","year":"2022","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025), citing the 1984-2022 modal share update","source_tier":"primary","note":"A modal share, not a capacity. Rail share of exports by commodity in 2022: corn 44%, soybeans 38%, wheat 58%."}],"disruptions":[{"date":"2022-10-22","event":"Memphis gauge low point of -10.81 ft (fall 2022 drought on the Mississippi River System).","effect":"Peak Memphis barge spot rate $88.31 per ton in 2022, the all-time high per USDA.","computed":"-10.81 ft x 0.3048 m/ft = -3.29 m","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2023-10-17","event":"Memphis gauge low point of -11.95 ft (USDA describes 2023 as having record low water levels).","effect":"Peak Memphis barge spot rate $53.03 per ton in 2023; USDA says rates were lower than 2022 because export demand was lower.","computed":"-11.95 ft x 0.3048 m/ft = -3.64 m","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2024-09 to 2024-11-03","event":"By early September 2024 barge draft had been cut to 9 ft 6 in., reducing barge capacity by 20 to 27%, and tow size to 25 barges (a 17 to 38% reduction). Memphis gauge low of -10.44 ft on Nov 3, 2024.","effect":"Peak Memphis barge spot rate $25.68 per ton on Sep 17, 2024. USDA says fall 2024 hurricane rainfall helped ease low water.","computed":"-10.44 ft x 0.3048 m/ft = -3.18 m","source_url":"https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/ReliableWaterwaySystem042025.pdf","source_name":"USDA AMS, A Reliable Waterway System Is Important to Agriculture (Apr 2025)","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"rhine-kaub-middle-rhine","name":"Rhine low-water bottleneck (Kaub and the Middle Rhine)","lat":50.088,"lon":7.763,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Kaub' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11","type":"river","summary":"German inland waterway carrying most of Germany's inland freight; the Kaub gauge is treated by the German statistics office as an important indicator of navigable depth. Relevance to the site: coal and mineral oil products are the product groups Destatis names.","commodities":[{"slug":null,"name":"All goods (coal and mineral oil products named as the most important groups; no tonnages for them)","flow_text":"Goods carried on German inland waterways wholly or partly on the Rhine","volume":71.1,"unit":"million tonnes","year":"January to May 2022","share_text":"86.3% of the 82.4 million tonnes carried on German inland waterways in the period (Destatis).","source_url":"https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/08/PE22_N053_463.html","source_name":"Destatis (German Federal Statistical Office), press release N053, Aug 26, 2022","source_tier":"primary","note":"Middle Rhine Valley bottleneck: over 18,000 freight vessels carrying about 20.6 million tonnes passed in the same period."}],"facts":[{"label":"Average loading degree of dry cargo vessels on the Upper Rhine, July 2022","value":42,"unit":"percent","year":"Jul 2022","source_url":"https://www.ccr-zkr.org/files/documents/workshops/wrshp180123/01_LRoux_KKempmann_en.pdf","source_name":"CCNR (Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine), low water experts' workshop, Jan 18, 2023","source_tier":"primary","note":"31% in August 2022 (same presentation)."}],"bypass":[],"bypass_note":"No alternative-route capacity found in the sources opened.","disruptions":[{"date":"2022-07 to 2022-08","event":"Summer 2022 low water on the Rhine. Goods transported on the Upper Rhine fell 49% in July and 77% in August 2022 against the same months of 2021; waterside cargo in the main Upper Rhine ports fell 41% in August 2022 vs August 2021.","effect":"CCNR says low water and, to a lesser extent, the war in Ukraine were the two decisive factors; dry bulk freight rates showed the strongest rise of all segments in 2022 (reasons given: low water, capacity bottlenecks, high coal transport demand).","source_url":"https://www.ccr-zkr.org/files/documents/workshops/wrshp180123/01_LRoux_KKempmann_en.pdf","source_name":"CCNR, low water experts' workshop, Jan 18, 2023","source_tier":"primary"},{"date":"2026-08-13","event":"Record low reported by Argus: the Kaub gauge stood at 11 cm on August 13, 2026, with the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration expecting 6 cm by the weekend, which Argus called 'another all-time low'; barge operators said most traffic was halted south of Mainz.","effect":"A gauge value in centimeters, not water depth.","source_url":"https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2864800-rhine-hits-record-lows-halts-shipping-south-of-mainz","source_name":"Argus Media, Aug 13, 2026","source_tier":"secondary"},{"date":"2026-09-25","event":"The Kaub water-level gauge (raw data, 15-minute readings, unit cm) read between -1 and -6 cm on several days from September 25 to October 8, 2026: -6 cm at 02:45 local time on October 1 was the lowest reading in the 30 days to October 11, and readings were 16 cm at 11:15 on October 11.","effect":"A gauge value, not water depth: the gauge zero is 67.669 m above the NHN datum (PEGELONLINE). PEGELONLINE's published lowest daily water level for November 2010 to October 2020 is 25 cm (October 22, 2018). The 30-day window fetched starts on September 11, 2026 (22 cm).","source_url":"https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/webservices/rest-api/v2/stations/KAUB/W/measurements.json?start=P30D","source_name":"WSV PEGELONLINE (German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration), station KAUB, parameter W, retrieved Oct 11, 2026","source_tier":"primary"}]},{"id":"drc-copper-outlets","name":"DR Congo copper outlets (Lobito corridor, Dar es Salaam, Durban)","lat":-12.35,"lon":13.5464,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Lobito' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. Durban: -29.883, 31.05; Dar es Salaam: -6.816, 39.280 (same source).","secondary_points":[{"name":"Durban","lat":-29.883,"lon":31.05},{"name":"Dar es Salaam","lat":-6.816,"lon":39.28}],"type":"route","summary":"Three export outlets for Copperbelt metal and concentrate: Lobito (Atlantic, via the Lobito Atlantic Railway), Dar es Salaam (Indian Ocean) and Durban (Indian Ocean). No source found that splits DR Congo copper exports by outlet in tonnes; the volumes below are production context and all-cargo throughput, not copper flows.","commodities":[{"slug":"copper","flow_text":"DR Congo (Congo, Kinshasa) copper mine production (context, not an export or route volume)","volume":2990,"unit":"thousand metric tons (contained copper)","year":"2024","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-copper.pdf","source_name":"USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Copper (mine production table)","source_tier":"primary","note":"2025 estimate: 3,200 thousand tons; world total 23,000 in both years (USGS). Local copy: data/raw/usgs_chapters/mcs2026-copper.pdf."},{"slug":null,"name":"All cargo (not copper-specific)","flow_text":"Cargo carried by the Lobito Atlantic Railway to and from the Port of Lobito","volume":200000,"unit":"tonnes (source: 'more than')","year":"2025","share_text":null,"source_url":"https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/lobito-corridor-railway-project-democratoc-republic-of-congo-update-2026-03-27","source_name":"Engineering News, Mar 27, 2026, citing Lobito Atlantic Railway","source_tier":"secondary","note":"Record month 37,000 t in December 2025 (domestic and international traffic); about 30,000 t in January 2026 (same article). All cargo, not copper-specific."},{"slug":null,"name":"All cargo (not copper-specific)","flow_text":"DRC-bound transit cargo through the Port of Dar es Salaam (all cargo, not copper)","volume":7.77,"unit":"million tonnes","year":"FY2025/26","share_text":"53% of transit cargo (14.61 million tonnes) at the port (as reported by The Citizen).","source_url":"https://thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/business/dar-port-records-17-percent-rise-in-transit-cargo-5553682","source_name":"The Citizen (Tanzania), Aug 11, 2026, figures from Dar es Salaam Port director Abed Gallus","source_tier":"secondary","note":"All cargo, not copper: the article does not mention copper. FY2024/25: 5.99 million tonnes (+30% to FY2025/26)."}],"facts":[{"label":"Lobito main line length (Lobito to Negrao and the Luau border)","value":1289,"unit":"kilometers","year":"Engineering News, Mar 2026","source_url":"https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/lobito-corridor-railway-project-democratoc-republic-of-congo-update-2026-03-27","source_name":"Engineering News, Mar 27, 2026","source_tier":"secondary","note":"30-year concession signed Nov 4, 2022; connects to the Congolese rail network to Kolwezi."},{"label":"Lobito Atlantic Railway stated capacity target","value":4.6,"unit":"million tonnes per year (article gives no named source)","year":"Engineering News, Mar 2026","source_url":"https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/lobito-corridor-railway-project-democratoc-republic-of-congo-update-2026-03-27","source_name":"Engineering News, Mar 27, 2026","source_tier":"secondary","note":"A target, not current capacity."}],"bypass":[{"route":"Alternative DRC copper outlets: Dar es Salaam, Durban (and others not sourced here)","capacity":null,"unit":null,"year":null,"source_url":"https://thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/business/dar-port-records-17-percent-rise-in-transit-cargo-5553682","source_name":"The Citizen (Tanzania), Aug 11, 2026","source_tier":"secondary","note":"No route-level copper capacity or volume found in sources that could be opened."}],"disruptions":[]},{"id":"guinea-boke-bauxite-route","name":"Guinea (Boke region) to China bauxite route","lat":10.933,"lon":-14.3,"coordinate_source":"English Wikipedia page coordinates for 'Boke' (MediaWiki API prop=coordinates), retrieved 2026-10-11. A sea route, not a strait; the point marks the Boke region only. No port names are asserted because no opened source ties specific ports to the volumes below.","type":"route","summary":"Guinea is the largest bauxite producer in USGS's 2025 estimate; most of its shipments go to China (CEPII BACI, 2024).","commodities":[{"slug":"bauxite","flow_text":"Guinea bauxite mine production","volume":142000,"unit":"thousand metric dry tons","year":"2024","share_text":null,"computed":"142,000 / 428,000 (USGS world total, rounded) = 33.2% (computed by us from USGS figures)","source_url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-bauxite-alumina.pdf","source_name":"USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Bauxite and Alumina (world production table)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Production, not exports. Local copy: data/raw/usgs_chapters/mcs2026-bauxite-alumina.pdf."},{"slug":"bauxite","flow_text":"Guinea bauxite mine production","volume":150000,"unit":"thousand metric dry tons","year":"2025 (estimate)","share_text":null,"computed":"150,000 / 440,000 (USGS world total, rounded) = 34.1% (computed by us from USGS figures)","source_url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-bauxite-alumina.pdf","source_name":"USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Bauxite and Alumina (world production table)","source_tier":"primary","note":"Estimate."},{"slug":"bauxite","flow_text":"Guinea to China exports, HS 260600 (aluminium ores and concentrates, mostly bauxite)","volume":110091,"unit":"thousand metric tons (BACI quantity, metric tons /1,000)","year":"2024","share_text":null,"computed":"BACI sum for exporter Guinea (324) to importer China (156), HS 260600: 110,091,480 t; China's total HS 260600 imports: 159,595,439 t; 110,091,480 / 159,595,439 = 69.0% of China's HS 260600 imports by weight (tonnes), not by value (computed by us)","source_url":"http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/bdd_modele/bdd_modele_item.asp?id=37","source_name":"CEPII BACI, HS22 V202601 (released 2026-01-22), file BACI_HS22_Y2024_V202601.csv, local copy data/raw/baci","source_tier":"primary","note":"BACI reconciles mirror statistics; it is not Guinean or Chinese customs data directly. Quantities in metric tons; Guinea's 69.0% share of China's HS 260600 imports is by weight (110,091,480 t of 159,595,439 t), not by value, so it will differ from a value-based share."}],"facts":[{"label":"Australia bauxite mine production","value":100000,"unit":"thousand metric dry tons","year":"2024","source_url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-bauxite-alumina.pdf","source_name":"USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Bauxite and Alumina","source_tier":"primary","note":"China 80,500 thousand tons in 2024 (USGS estimate flag e). Production, not trade."}],"bypass":[],"bypass_note":"No alternative route; substitute supply is other mines. USGS gives production only, no spare-capacity data.","disruptions":[{"date":"2025-08","event":"The Guinean Government, following a dispute over construction of an alumina refinery, revoked bauxite mining licenses from a subsidiary of a United Arab Emirates-based aluminum producer and reallocated the concessions to a state-backed mining company (USGS).","effect":"USGS gives no flow effect.","source_url":"https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-bauxite-alumina.pdf","source_name":"USGS, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, Bauxite and Alumina (Events, Trends, and Issues)","source_tier":"primary"}]}]}